Betsan's blog

The LCO recipe

• Betsan Powys
• 19 Nov 08, 12:21 PM

One of your comments asked for an explanation of LCOs - what are they?

I have had a couple of bashes at explaining LCOs in the past - here's one here but today Hywel Williams MP has come up with Plaid's version.

HOW TO MAKE AN LCO

The Welsh Assembly now has the Measure making powers applied for in the Legislative Competence Order and may choose to make a Measure within these powers.

Hywel Williams wasn't present at the Welsh Affairs Committee meeting when the report on the Affordable Housing LCO was agreed - the one that's led to fellow MP Adam Price talking about "a potential constitutional crisis". As Mr Williams put it: "I hadn't been at the meeting. But that doesn't mean I agree with it - not at all."

You just suspect then that one or two of Hywel Williams' Plaid colleagues might be tempted to pencil in "turning up" as point 14.5.

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Answering the need?

• Betsan Powys
• 19 Nov 08, 10:29 AM

It stops you short when you hear sentences like: "We don't know how many deaf children there are in Welsh schools".

Surely, that can't be true? In these days of form filling, box ticking and hypothecated funding, local authorities must know exactly how many deaf children they have in their schools.

Not according to Conservative AM, Alun Cairns. They will know exactly how many children have a "hearing impairment". They will know exactly how many of those particular boxes are ticked. They will know that much because of the PLASC statistics - an acronym that refers to the the twice-yearly statutory collection of school information and pupil details that takes place in all nursery, primary, secondary and special schools in Wales.

But Alun Cairns argues that knowing how many children have a hearing impairment doesn't tell you how many are deaf. Nor, therefore, does it tell a government how to be more strategic in offering deaf children the best education possible, or in targeting training, matching not only numbers but need with support.

"We simply don't know what is out there" was how he put it and the same, he argues, goes for children with all kinds of special educational needs.

When he won the backbench ballot and won the chance to promote a measure - a chance, put simply, to work towards a new, Welsh law - his idea was to bring forward a Proposed Special Educational Needs Information Measure. Its purpose, he said, was to give the Minister the power to gather more detailed information. It wouldn't be a call for data just for data's sake but so that more information could lead to better tailored care and opportunities.

The Bevan Foundation recently published a reflective look back at the successes and failures of the legislative process in Wales over the past year. Now granted, all three authors share a wardrobe of anoraks but they, at least, saw something of note in Alun Cairns' measure.

"This Measure is notable because it seeks to replicate provisions which already apply in
England through the recently passed Special Educational Needs (Information) Act.24 In England too, this Act was brought about through a backbencher ballot. This is the first example of an Assembly Measure which seeks to extend provisions from England to Wales. It is not being done through developing joint legislation in Westminster but through similar provisions in Wales informed by the process in England. As such it is an important staging post in the maturing relationship between two legislatures who can now "borrow" legislative ideas from each other".

Some are arguing that England were simply catching up with Wales on this. Others that Alun Cairns' measure would have allowed Wales to learn from and catch up with England. Does it seem unlikely, somehow, that the Welsh Assembly Government could change things via regulations, whereas the UK government feels it must bring in legislation to bring about the same kind of change?

Before you can make up our own mind, the Cairns backbench measure has bitten the dust.

The Minister, Jane Hutt, has read, listened and decided there's nothing in it for the government. Labour and Plaid, the governing parties, won't be supporting the proposed measure. There's nothing in it, not because its intentions aren't good but because the government have already put steps in place to gather more and better data. The Assembly Government already has the powers to do the job, goes the argument and from April 2009 they'll be getting on with pilot projects that could lead to reform of the system along the lines proposed by Alun Cairns.

No, you don't have the powers to do the job properly says a visibly frustrated and angry Alun Cairns. Oh yes we do, says the invisible Welsh Assembly Government spokesperson.

So two questions.

There's a gnawing feeling amongst some professional Assembly-watchers that - faced with a backbench measure - the Assembly Government's first instinct is to bat off the need for legislation. Fair?

I'm not not sure how much evidence you need for a "gnawing feeling" but here it is: one proposed measure (Jenny Randerson on healthy eating in schools) is going ahead nicely. Two (Mike German on school closures and Peter Black on youth services) are dead in the water. Another two (Dai Lloyd on the disposal of playing fields and Nerys Evans on community involvement in waste disposal decisions) are alive but not exactly kicking.

And the second question. DO we know how many deaf children there are in Welsh schools?

According to the National Deaf Children's Society (NDCS), no we don't. Local authorities know how many children have impaired hearing or impaired vision - but deaf? Mild? Moderate? Profound? No comes the unequivocal answer and it's about time that we did.

We have put the same question to the government and when their response arrives, I'll update.

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Blasphemy, rhetoric and profanity

• Betsan Powys
• 18 Nov 08, 12:05 PM

The (rather beautiful) paintings of naked women hanging in the Senedd some time ago got a frosty reception from some.

The tin-plate portrait of Margaret Thatcher led to three Statements of Opinion and some strong language.

But the planned reading by Patrick Jones of his controversial poetry in Ty Hywel - the red brick building taxi drivers still can't quite believe ever housed the National Assembly - looks as though it might lead to even louder protest and stronger language.

Trish Law, the independent AM for Blaenau Gwent is described by the Blaenau Gwent People's Voice party on their website as "An Assembly Member, free from Party Political Dictatorship guided only by the Views, Opinions and Wishes of the People of Blaenau Gwent." This morning she's made her views - and we must assume their views - on the Patrick Jones reading crystal clear.

She pulls no punches in her letter to the Presiding Officer, Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas.

"While I uphold freedom of speech I cannot condone the reading of blasphemous, obscene and perverted poems in the National Assembly. We are still a Christian country, yet one that acknowledges and readily accepts other religious beliefs and values. So while we would not tolerate other religions and religious leaders being insulted through verse or deed neither should we expect Christ and Christianity to be subjected to a tirade of anti-Christian rhetoric and profanity.

I implore you to put a stop to this reading on December 11th in the name of decency and humanity."

The line of attack from Conservative Jonathan Morgan is not the same but the upshot of his argument is: the reading - hosted by two AMs, Lorraine Barrett and Peter Black - should not happen.

"Patrick Jones seems to think that the freedom of speech is a convenient shield to be used when under attack for being offensive. In exercising that freedom, and in respecting it, we should do so responsibly. I do not believe that AMs should be wading into the debate by hosting a reading. It is a mistake and opens up the institution to the accusation that it is siding with one opinion without giving the other the same chance of expression".

Preventing last week's planned reading at Waterstone's in Cardiff was hailed by the national director of Christian Voice, Stephen Green, as a triumph "for the Lord, not for us".

He'll already have realised, I'm sure, that this time round the decision lies in the hands of another Lord - note, a Lord Temporal, not Spiritual.

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Never

• Betsan Powys
• 17 Nov 08, 05:21 PM

Two years ago, almost to the day, Peter Hain, then Welsh Secretary, spoke to the Western Mail about Welsh Labour and Proportional Representation in local government. He used the 'never' word.

"The policy of Welsh Labour, adopted unanimously at our special conference on Saturday, is emphatic. Welsh Labour will not consider and would never accept any move towards PR in local government in Wales."

The rub comes in the next line of the story:

'Both Mr Hain and First Minister Rhodri Morgan have emphatically rejected PR in local government, thus effectively ruling out any chance of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats if Labour fails to win an overall majority next May'.

Two years on the First Minister returns to the 'never' word. But in his contribution to the IWA's Politics in 21st Century Wales his use of the same word tells an entirely different story:

"Looking ahead ... then this is an issue which I do not believe that the Labour Party in Wales can responsibly consign to Never Never Land".

In fact he's in favour of 'Permissive PR' where local councils could hold a referendum on bringing in PR if enough local people were keen on change. How many is 'enough'? How would the referendum be triggered? Would it be legal? When I know, I'll tell you.

Why is he in favour?

Because the First Minister is certain Labour would do better in Pembrokeshire, Ceredigion, Ynys Mon and Gwynedd under PR and because "without winning in the west, Labour cannot win Wales". Not exactly Grav's 'West is best' but a pretty clear 'Don't retreat to the rest'.

And because not working out a different position on PR will tie the hands of a future Labour leader who wants to pick up the phone to a future Lib Dem leader - perhaps Kirsty Williams who some twenty pages later in the same book argues for "no truce without PR".

When Peter Black attempted to gain the powers to introduce PR in local government elections in Wales Rhodri Morgan's explanation for voting in favour was that he'd simply pressed the wrong button.

Was it less finger trouble and more like the hand of friendship after all?

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I'll have what he's having

• Betsan Powys
• 13 Nov 08, 09:57 AM

I don't know what Alun Michael has for breakfast but in the (redrafted) words of "When Harry met Sally", I'll have what he's having.

On Radio Wales this morning his verdict on tensions over the Affordable Housing LCO was a resounding: "Devolution is working. Hurrah!"

The Welsh Assembly Government have responded rather differently to the story.

"We don't recognise this version of events. Constructive work and discussions are ongoing with regard to the suspension of the right to buy LCO."

Under the circumstances it's no surprise that the Affordable Housing LCO seems to have been renamed for the element that's led to such strong words already. I'm thinking about "anti-devolution sentiment" and "potential constitutional crisis."

What there is - quite clearly - is a realisation that the Welsh Assembly Government is in a hole over this bid for power and that the best they can do now is find a way out of it. That is not, as one tired and frustrated voice put it, how it is supposed to be.

Would Plaid regard a decision to rework this LCO as a reason to walk away from government? Only Liberal Democrat leadership contender, Jenny Randerson, seems to think so. How would they explain to Mr Jones in Rhyl, who's just lost his job and who's in fear of what the credit crunch will do to his chances of getting another one, that they're walking out of government over the granting of powers they've no plans to exercise?

Yes, it sounds a bit academic. Dry. Irrelevant. Maybe but the way out of this corner will be scrutinised as closely as the bid for power itself. Not by Mr Jones in Rhyl perhaps but the way it's solved could make a mark on the body that represents Mr Jones and that is anything but academic.

By the way Meg Ryan was, of course, faking it in "When Harry met Sally". I'm quite sure Alun Michael's delight was anything but.

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The gloves are off.

• Betsan Powys
• 11 Nov 08, 11:52 AM

I was in Aberystwyth yesterday - Lib Dem territory in parliamentary terms - and missed this warm welcome for the launch of Kirsty Williams' leadership manifesto from the Chair of her opponent, Jenny Randerson's leadership campaign.

"We are delighted that Kirsty has come on board with so many of the ideas that Jenny launched last week such as simplifying local government funding, sabotaging the erosion of civil liberties and building a green economy.

"I'm also pleased that her manifesto reaffirms her support for so much existing party policy.

"Jenny has always wanted this campaign to be a battle of ideas and I know she is really excited about going head to head at the first hustings later this week."

You can't really confirm it from this photograph of Jenny Willott MP but I think we now know the gloves are off.

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Choppy waters

• Betsan Powys
• 11 Nov 08, 10:53 AM

It's a case of luck of the draw as far lobby briefings go.

In a week where very little is rocking the One Wales boat, the Minister whose turn it is to talk to us lobby journalists gets to talk about the issues they want to discuss, get to field questions on subjects they know about and want to hammer home.

And then there's this week. The waters are choppy and Rural Affairs Minister Elin Jones wished out loud it had been someone else's turn to man the boat.

As a Plaid Minister did Elin Jones share Adam Price MP's very public concern that the dispute over the future of the Affordable Housing LCO presented the coalition government with "a potential constitutional crisis?"

She didn't. Straight face, straight bat.

Did she think he was exaggerating any potential threat to the coalition and if so, why?

Her answer was that she didn't perhaps, share his view but that didn't mean that she thought he, speaking as a Plaid politician, was wrong. She too, she reminded us, is a Plaid politician but she's also a Government Minister and in that capacity, staunchly held the line until the bitter end that this is not a political matter. It is, she insisted, a matter of government process and one that's being negotiated as we speak.

Does the Secretary of State, Paul Murphy, want a constitutional crisis? I doubt it. If I'm right would a man with his long experience in avoiding such a crisis allow one to happen? Not if he can help it.

But that's not to say things won't get choppier and nastier.

One member of the Welsh Affairs Select Committee has already written to expert researchers at the House of Commons Library asking for an official definition of the role of the Llywydd. That's not because there's a constitutional Christmas quiz coming up at his local. It is, of course, a none-too-subtle shot across the bows of Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas whose involvement in the row has raised the ire of some MPs on the Welsh Select and re-opened some old wounds.

One thought: does the process allow the Assembly Government to put the Affordable Housing LCO, as it is, to a vote of the whole Assembly? Yes, it does and Elin Jones seemed to have mulled that one over already.

If that happens and if it gets - as the maths dictate it should - the backing of the Assembly as a whole, it would be an LCO stamped even more clearly with 'the will of the Assembly'.

And if that happens, how prepared would the Secretary of State be then to refuse to lay it before both Houses of Parliament?

Update:
[Just noticed that I omitted to type the word 'it' in that last sentence, which conjured up a rather unusual course of action for Paul Murphy ...]

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From the notebook

• Betsan Powys
• 7 Nov 08, 11:26 AM

Scribbled notes from yesterday's conference on the Evolution of Devolution:

Hywel Francis MP on the Affordable Housing LCO: "There are unforeseen problems with the way it's been drafted by our esteemed colleagues and comrades in Cardiff. Is it what it says on the tin?"

Marie Navarro - lawyer, academic and devolution expert - thought devolution legislation was 'inflating' at a faster pace than expected but the first year was bound to be tricky:

"The first year is like the first pancake. In France we get rid of it straight away".

Would a referendum on further powers be winnable?

"I've no idea or opinion. I just want to know are we to have one or not. I want to know what game we're playing".

Laura McAllister, former member of Richard Commission, currently on a research sabbatical from Liverpool University at the Assembly Commission describing the process of the transfer or powers from Westminster:

"It might be cleverly-crafted and let's not get away from the fact that it is functional but people in Wales have not grasped it and the issue of intelligibility is key in any democracy".

The Western Mail's Martin Shipton on the same subject: "It is a mess".

Laura McAllister also came up with a rather neat, if partisan, collective noun for AMs: "an inelasticity of 60 AMs" and a body blow for civil servants: "officials are not of sufficient managerial capability to deal with the next step in devolution".

Cheryl Gillan MP on different perspectives in London and Cardiff: "There is a natural tension that we never seem to address".

Peter Hain MP on accusations that his colleagues take their role of scrutiny too far: "It's not a question of London modifying things. It's a case of what does this act mean? Does it mean what it says on the box? It's about asking whether an LCO transmits what it is supposed to transmit."

On the timing of a referendum: "Not in this decade. You might see it in the next decade at some point."

If the Conservatives win the next general election: "It may well be considerably sooner".

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Chill!

• Betsan Powys
• 6 Nov 08, 06:31 PM

What does this remind you of?

Kid: Hey Dad, can I have £10?
Dad: What do you want it for?
Kid: I'm going into town.
Dad: What do you want it for?
Kid: Just chill will you Dad?

It may remind you of life at home. It reminds an emminent lawyer and father, who knows a thing or two about devolution, of the LCO process, the way in which Welsh politicians in London scrutinise the requests for power from Welsh politicians in Cardiff.

He was at a conference today on the Evolution of Devolution and wanted to know what MPs on the panel thought of his comparison. Cheryl Gillan - no children of her own as she pointed out - had been told it was important to let go of your children and let them make their own way.

Elfyn Llwyd heard an echo of his own frustrations with the process.

And Hywel Francis? The Chair of the Welsh Affairs Select Committee didn't like it at all. It's our job to scrutinise or ask 'what do you want it for?' he said. AMs and MPs will inevitably have different perspectives but stop thinking in terms of 'those terrible MPs' as a committee of Dads just out to frustrate and spoil for a fight.

Peter Hain was there too. This Dad was proud that clauses delivering framework powers to Wales were now, in his view, being increasingly and deliberately more widely and permissively drafted. And what's more he had it in for "those Tory MPs" who want to try and second guess what the Assembly might do with its ten quid's worth of powers in the future. "That is not their job!"

And then came the question about the dispute over the Affordable Housing LCO. What was going to happen next? The Parliamentary Under Secretary of State Wayne David was very open about that .The Secretary of State, Paul Murphy, he told the conference, agreed with the Welsh Affairs Select Committee that there was a conflict between the verbal evidence and the explanatory memorandum, a conflict that led to unintentional consequences. In plain English that while the Welsh Assembly Government had told the committee they just wanted to use the powers on affordable housing to temporarily suspend the right to buy your council house in some areas, the bid for power would actually transfer the powers to abolish that right. It was he said, perhaps "not unreasonable to expect the Assembly Government to mean what they say and say what they mean".

By now that was the gist of the message expected in Cardiff Bay but it's clear they thought discussions were on-going and had thought they'd hear it first from the Secretary of State himself.

So what now?

If Paul Murphy does take the view reported by his deputy today then the First Minister and his cabinet face a simple choice: to stand their ground, to say that this bid for power does what it says on the tin, that the consequences are entirely intentional, that they have no plans of changing their request. Or back down, accept that this Assembly Government has no plans to use the wider powers now anyway so that to allow the Secretary of State to limit them - or to use a more provocative word, veto them - is really no great hardship. Why have a serious bust-up with your Dad if you don't really need the tenner right now?

But what happens then? What does Plaid, Labour's coalition partner, do then? Shout from the rooftops that in their view, there is no constitutional or legal reason not to transfer the powers? That this is simply a case of politicians in London not wanting to give them the go-ahead and looking for a get-out? That if the First Minister is prepared to give in on this then the Welsh Language LCO is dead in the water? Will they step up the talk of a potential constitutional crisis?

Ah, now I see. It was never about the tenner was it?

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"The Way Ahead"

• Betsan Powys
• 5 Nov 08, 03:36 PM

I am, I'm told by my colleague, about to try and make a glacier mint out of a piece of fudge.

I'm about to try and see clearly 'Devolution in Wales: The Way Ahead' as envisaged by Lord Roberts of Conwy in his much anticipated interim report for David Cameron.

It is a long piece of fudge, certainly. So long the Conservatives today have only released a summary excerpt of the report and guess what, it leads to three little words: yet another commission.

The simple version is this: Look, there just isn't going to be a referendum on or before 2011 because come on, like it or not, very few people think it would be won. Not that we're against more devolution or anything but there we are. Face the facts. Now if we win the next General Election then we'd take another good look at this - not sure how long that would take but we're talking a root and branch examination of the system of governance of Wales here, so it could take some time - and then we'd make up our minds. If we decided that yes, transferring more powers to the National Assembly is a good idea, then it's up to the Assembly to trigger a referendum and then we'd take a look at that request and "consider the proposal on its merits".

What if that request for a referendum came before the root and branch examination had happened? The gist of the response is that it would be up to the Secretary of State to make a decision based on the merits of the request.

Now try making a glacier mint out of that.

I don't see there a cast iron guarantee that a Conservative Secretary of State would not veto a request for a referendum from the Assembly.

The spin is that it's extremely unlikely that a Conservative Secretary of State would veto a referendum request, that it would be extremely hard to imagine any Secretary of State from any party going down that road. But that is not what it says on this particular tin of fudge.

At least one Conservative Assembly Member may believe that is what it means but that is not what it says.

Some - amongst them Plaid's Elfyn Llwyd - see rather more. He sees not just a refusal to commit to even holding a referendum if a request is made but a suggestion that a Cameron Government would consider abolishing Devolution. I've read and re-read and I don't. He'll have to show me that bit.

What I do see is talk of "tangible, sustainable and considerable benefits to the Principality". Principality? Perhaps that's one of the twenty thousand words the editor might have questioned.

So much for David Cameron's desire to see the party settling its position on further powers for the Welsh assembly.

So much for the timing: November the fifth it may be but fireworks clearly lighting up the way ahead?

Not here.

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Are you ok?

• Betsan Powys
• 4 Nov 08, 10:39 AM

It's not rocket science according to the Welsh Assembly Government's Director of Mental Health Development. Preventing suicide can simply be about asking 'are you ok?' and listening to the answer. It can, said Phill Chick, be about a whole lot more but at least you shouldn't be afraid to ask.

The suicide rate in Wales is less than that of Northern Ireland or Scotland but higher than England and higher than the UK average. This morning you'll perhaps have been listening as the Welsh Assembly Government spelled out their national strategy to reduce suicide and self-harm - the one they've come under the cosh for not having, the one they've now been persuaded by experience in Scotland in particular of having a national strategy, will "add value" to the various programmes and initiatives already in place.

The one that means they might now hit the target they set in 2002 to reduce suicide in Wales by 10 per cent by 2012? Their progress so far, it was admitted this morning, was "mixed". Having a coherent national strategy will, it's hoped, "help with that".

The national strategy that is now in place because of the cluster of suicides in the Bridgend area over the past year?

No matter how hard you've been listening to that answer, it's been tough to get a straight one.

There's been a willingness to say that the strategy launched today was informed by what happened in he Bridgend area and that it was even prompted by what happened there. This morning, the Chief Medical Officer for Wales, Dr Tony Jewell, gave us the answer we needed to report this fairly and properly. In his view this national strategy wouldn't have been launched today if it weren't for the fact that some 23 young people from the Bridgend area have apparently taken their own lives since the beginning of 2007.

Small comfort maybe for all of those so deeply affected by a single death, let alone that number of deaths. Small comfort but perhaps some comfort. And maybe that isn't rocket science either.

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Taking a break

• Betsan Powys
• 28 Oct 08, 10:04 AM

Noah (not the two-by-two man in the ark but the commentator who's no fan of just the one Assembly) spotted signs of frivolity on the blog last week. Well spotted Noah. Must have been de-mob happy.

Off for a few days with the family - back to blogging next week.

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Strategic thinking

• Betsan Powys
• 24 Oct 08, 10:25 AM

She came, she saw ... a need for more strategic thinking.

Dame Gillian Morgan, the Permanent Secretary, took up the job some months ago, has done the talking and the listening and seems now to have sized up the task ahead of her.

If the jobs advertised in a small corner of yesterday's Western Mail are anything to go by, then she's decided at least two things: firstly that the new-look civil service will need to work more strategically, look out of the silos of old and work together to help deliver good government.

She's also making it clear she's aiming for the best - her mantra when she took up the job - hence the adverts in the paper. She's opened the top jobs for external competition. Four jobs are up for grabs: four Director General posts in 'Public services and local government delivery', 'Sustainable future', 'People, places and corporate services' and 'Finance'.

The salary for each job is £130,000 and all will be based in Cardiff. We're told the reorganisation will be 'cost neutral' which must mean a smaller top team than before. There will be some Directors General already in post - covering areas like education and the economy from the looks of the list above - but that still looks like a top tier of top honchos considerably smaller than in the past.

Small, the Permanent Secretary persumably hopes, will mean more nimble and more able to work in tandem with each other.

A step in the right direction is the general consensus and broad support for the decision to advertise externally. But as one AM keen to see a gear change in the quality of the service put it: changing the top dogs is one thing. What really matters is changes to the divisions they lead.

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