Latest entry
- Justin Webb
- 19 Nov 08, 17:39 GMT
As the post mortems continue on the Republican side the idea that the media essentially stole the election for Obama is a pervasive theme supported (they say) by this kind of evidence.
Is it true? Perhaps is the answer provided here. But wait. We know that electors' brains work oddly - we know they tend to remember and enjoy affirmative information about a favoured candidate and block out dissonance, from whatever source. I wonder whether all the documentary proves is that this indeed happens. I would be interested to know whether a similar number of McCain supporters would have been able to parrot all the anti-Obama lines but might have been "ignorant" of McCain's view that the fundamentals of the economy were sound, or Palin's view that the view of Russia from her state somehow constituted foreign policy experience? I see the documentary maker has offered to pay for a similar poll if it turns out that Republicans were as deluded...
This is the offer: "Ziegler's offered a double-or-nothing deal to anyone who wants to recreate the same poll for McCain voters. If that survey shows the same results, he'll pay the cost of both polls, but if the results are significantly different, the challenger has to pay for both polls (reimburse Ziegler for the first)."
Who dares come up with the cash?
Recent entries
- Justin Webb
- 18 Nov 08, 20:44 GMT
I have never met a Mormon I did not hugely like.
Well, alright, the presidential candidate fellow was a touch reserved when I had a sandwich with him and his jolly Welsh wife many moons ago in Des Moines, but he had his reasons for caution and he certainly was not hostile.
Normally, a Mormon is a decent person, that is my experience.
And none more so than the amiable Michael Otterson, who speaks for the church - and with whom I have had many dealings over the years.
What a surprise then, this terrible mess where the church appears to have got itself into the position of enemy-in-chief of gay liberty, as one might put it and is now facing a backlash far more potent and worrying than the low-level nastiness about Mitt Romney's religious views.
The case against the church is made with typical cogency and passion by Andrew Sullivan (whose experience of Mormons appears to have been been at odds with mine) but it seems to me that a wider, dispassionate view of the spat suggests that gay people will win - history is on their side.
The Mormon church itself - let us be blunt - did not do much for monogamous marriage in the early years of its existence; Mormons did not think much of black people until God told them (in 1978!) to change their ways. In the long term, He will be back...
- Justin Webb
- 17 Nov 08, 03:13 GMT
It looks as if the Hillary Clinton job rumours are true though not necessarily at State. But I am hearing squeals here in Washington from Obama loyalists who regard a Clinton re-birth - anywhere, though particularly at State - with unabashed horror. Would be counter to everything Obama believes, one senior figure (a definite player in the new administration) mutters. His thinking is not really based on policy but on drama and dramatic style. The Clintons are ghastly to work for: divisive, driven by demons and rages and angst whose real cause is too deep-seated to be capable of anything but psychological analysis. To have them in charge of the nation's foreign policy - whatever Henry K says - would be disastrous: this is the argument. Will Barack hear the anguish or is he already cut off from the troops?
- Justin Webb
- 13 Nov 08, 08:46 GMT
Apologies if people have seen this but it's too good to let it pass: American exceptionalism in a poll.
Did Jim Callaghan's supporters feel that way when Mrs Thatcher won in 1979; Major's when Blair came to power; I think not.
The figure of interest (of course) is the Republican optimism quotient: nearly half of those who voted for McCain are optimistic about the future under Obama.
It goes to two wonderful facts about the US: first there is a real desire to live life "in the future tense" as David Brooks has it, secondly there is an understanding that life is what you make of it irrespective of who's in or who's out in Washington.
The world can learn from the postive spirit of (many) American Republicans.
- Justin Webb
- 12 Nov 08, 18:28 GMT
This is where the future lies for both parties.
What is interesting about the Hispanic vote is that it is up for grabs - genuinely a swing vote in the future.
Immigration is plainly a battleground area, as is the economy generally, but socially conservative, fiscally sound, inclusive policies pursued by a future Republican candidate could do the trick as well.
And what if their bishops weigh in as they seem ready to do?
The paradox for Barack Obama is that if the economy improves on his watch, then some of these voters might feel able to think more about abortion - and other social issues - next time round.
(By the way, "Hispanic" or "Latino"? I thought "Latino" was mildly offensive, but the LA Times seems to use it and ought to know its onions on this matter.)
The point about Mr Obama's victory - precise numbers apart - is that it was a reaching out effort and that in itself is important and will have knock-on effects as suggested here.
- Justin Webb
- 10 Nov 08, 08:07 GMT
Oops. Maybe not so many new folks turned out after all - surely the biggest challenge for Obama and his backers is to find a way of expanding the new constituencies from which the future of the nation is being made.
Obviously a simple switch of allegience is important but finding the new voters is the key - expand the registered pool and try to keep the turnout about 60%, which is what they did this year.
The way to do that is to make registration simpler and easier and federally organised so that when you move your vote moves automatically with you as discussed in this post-election piece.
After the economy that has got to be priority number one: it is the presidential equivalent of redistricting ...
- Justin Webb
- 6 Nov 08, 17:49 GMT
This is a subject rather lost in all the general fuss - justified fuss - about the racial significance of the Obama victory.
It is a sensitive subject, particularly for those of us who have never been victims of racism.
But I wonder now whether it will become a theme of the Obama presidency - in effect, it is the Bill Cosby take on modern race relations; the claim that, to an extent, the current plight of many black Americans is the fault of black culture.
And that culture must now change.
- Justin Webb
- 5 Nov 08, 20:42 GMT
I have been talking to Francis Fukuyama - he of "end of history" fame - about whether or not America is really morphing into Europe...
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- Justin Webb
- 5 Nov 08, 15:50 GMT
Even in the blogging era you don't really believe it till you see it in the papers...
Spot-on analysis in a venerable newspaper as well.
- Justin Webb
- 5 Nov 08, 07:07 GMT
The Obama years will stretch America. The nation will come to think differently about itself. But Barack Obama is too focused and too, well, too midwestern in outlook, to really stick it to the right. He will govern from the centre and relish the battles with his own party that that will entail. He will do it because he will feel it to be right but also, of course, because that is the way to be re-elected in 2012, overcoming the fearsome challenge of Sarah Palin. This is an early stab at the immediate future though I thought (looking at the names for Sec of State et al) that there were to be no re-treads? John D's list looks a little too stodgy, I suspect...
- Justin Webb
- 4 Nov 08, 23:56 GMT
This is what I saw and heard and wrote about on a night that America will remember forever...
0033 ET: The Obama crowd looks like modern America. This they have to face and accept in Strongsville, Ohio and Pottsville, Pennsylvania and a thousand other small towns across the nation. The question now - can Obama reach out to Pottsville? He will try. Will they reach out to him?
0011: You watch Obama making his speech - cogent and thoughtful and, to many Americans, profoundly moving. And you wonder: how long does this last? Four years like Carter? Eight years and longer like Reagan? Odd seeing Jesse Jackson in the crowd. Secretary of State? Only kidding.
2352: Looking at the McCain crowd in Arizona, you realise that the Republican party is in trouble. To base a party on white and elderly and socially conservative people is to base a party on a dwindling electoral resource. To manage to lose Hispanic people, as McCain appears to have done, is beyond careless. The Republicans will find someone to gather a new coalition together but it will not be Sarah Palin.
2311: No need for legal action in Virginia - but the celebrations of an Obama win there seem to me to speak more of a changing America than of Obama managing to triumph in an unlikely place. Virginia is a changed state - it has grown by 50% in 10 years. Those newcomers are not your granny's Virginians. Virginia looks and feels different. And as Virginia goes, so goes the nation - this is the immutable fact which wise Republicans (Pawlenty et al) grasp. Unwise Republicans think abortion and gay-bashing and gun-toting can still win them the future...
2306: On every level america will be changed by this result - its impact will be so profound that the nation will never be the same. In a sense the policy changes could be the least of it. It's the way the nation sees itself that will change. And the way outsiders see America. To think some ignorant folk think US elections are all about balloons and nonsense. To think some ignorant folk think America is not capable of change.
2240: It looks as if the Democrats will NOT get to the 60/40 Senate majority that would have allowed a sweeping of the boards. Someone at the McCain wake has told an AP reporter: "I'm very afraid that we're going to lose our freedoms, that the country will be controlled by almost a dictator."
That person will be relieved - or should be - by the Senate results. One Senator can hold up legislation - unless crushed by the 60/40 supermajority. Dictatorship might be held at bay...
2214: How satisfying for Obama that he - apparently - is going to take Iowa. Mainly white, wholly un-Kenyan, yet willing to take this guy to their hearts. Iowa is one of my favourite places - Des Moines is a wonderfully laid-back city and the state, in the January snow, glistens like a Christmas scene. He met them, they liked him, and they support him - that's the midwestern way. The race issue is interesting here as well - in states where there are few black people and no economic competition between the races, he sails home.
2143: New Mexico is projected to have been lost by McCain to Obama - frankly, none of this matters much if Pennsylvania and Ohio are gone (which appears to be the view of several organisations).
2123: Fox News are suggesting that Obama wins Ohio: to be honest, without Pennsylvania I see no hope for McCain anyway, but if Ohio goes so does the race - one of the great facts every American learns at kindergarten is that no Republican can win the White House without winning Ohio...
2055: Fascinating tales from Virginia - a Democratic lawyer tells me that litigation may follow if they lose the state: sophisticated efforts have been made to derail their victory, they claim, involving a double computer hack - into the DNC and a university - in order to try to keep the student vote down with false messages.
2022: Big, big victories projected in North Carolina and New Hampshire for the Democrats now - is this the real sign of a massive shift in American politics: a possible 60:40 majority in the Senate that would allow any legislation to pass. It matters every bit as much as the presidential result...
2010: If the Reuters projection that Pennsylvania is won by Obama is true, the night has ended relatively early. There is nowhere else McCain can hide. His entire strategy has been to balance out likely losses of Bush states like Iowa and New Mexico by stealing Pennsylvania. It has, it seems, failed.
2005: People talk about what it would mean for America if Barack Obama became president. I think the fact that his family, those two young black girls, would be the first family, would have a bigger impact.
1920: The projection in Vermont - if it is a result, and it appears to be clear that Obama is going to win there - brings home how divided America is in terms of states and regions. It is slap up against New Hampshire, with its fierce attachment to freedom - such a culturally different place from Vermont, where toeless sandals and socks are the order of the day, and one of the congressional representatives calls himself a socialist.
- Justin Webb
- 4 Nov 08, 23:04 GMT
It's wonderful to see - and to meet - so many Americans taking this so seriously. This is a nation of fast food, of short attention spans, of busy busy people who in the past have been too busy to vote in anything but moderate numbers. In 2004, turnout was respectable; the nation expects 2008 to be a celebration of democracy.
- Justin Webb
- 4 Nov 08, 21:00 GMT
You have to hand it to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger - he has become a politician of real consequence and heft: humourous and forceful. This from him...
"I think the polls are looking very good for McCain. You know there is a 50% in the latest polls, 50-50, I mean that's in our own house. And then there are very good poll numbers coming out - I mean that's 100% of the vote, McCain - that's amongst Austrian-born body-builders! So there's all kinds of great action going on, so I feel very optimistic!"
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