Mece ce makomar kungiyar IS?

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi Hakkin mallakar hoto Reuters
Image caption Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi ya fara bayyana ne a matsayin shugaban IS a watan Yulin shekarar 2014

Gwamnatin kasar Iraki ta ayyana kwato garin Mosul, bayan da kungiyar IS ta ayyana shi a matsayin daularata shekara uku da ta gabata.

Yayin da a birnin Raqqa, inda nan ne hedkwatar kungiyar a arewacin Siriya, sojojin da ke samun goyon bayan Amurka na dab da kwace ikon birnin.

Sakamakon haka, mayakan IS wadanda suke da iko yankuna masu girma a kasashen Siriya da Iraki - suke samun koma ba.

Sai dai hakan yana nuna cewa karshen kungiyar ne ya kusa, da gaske ne karshen IS ya zo?

"A'a ne amsar wannan tambayar," in ji Farfesa Paul Rogers na Jami'ar Bradford da ke kasar Ingila.

"Akwai karin hujjoji da ke nuna cewa IS tana kara bunkasa a kasahsen Iraki da Siriya kuma tana bunkasa a duniya," in ji shi.

Hakkin mallakar hoto Reuters
Image caption Ana gabza fada a kokarin kwato birnin Raqqa

Kamar sauran kwararru, Rogers ya yi gargadin hadarin da ke tattare saurin ayyana galaba kan kungiyar jihadin.

Da farko, yakin Mosul ya kasance wanda ya fi cin lokaci mai tsawo - kuma kungiyar ta nuna tirjiya ta hanyar sauya salo.

Kuma ta samu damar daukar sababbin mayaka da kuma shirya hare-hare a fadin duniya.

An karbe iko da yankunnan da ke hannunsu

A watan yunin 2014, kungiyar IS ta karbe iko da birnin Mosul. A cikin 'yan makonni, kungiyar ta karbe yankin da ya kai fadin Birtaniya wato (fiye da fadin murabba'in 242,000) tsakanin kasashen Iraki da Siriya.

Ba a jima ba daga nan, Amurka ta fara jagorantar kawancen hadin gwiwar soji, inda ta fara kaddamar da hare-haren bama-bamai kan kungiyar a kasashen. Inda hakan ya sa wuraren da kungiyar ta mallaka ya fara raguwa.

To sai dai yayin da da daular ke fuskantar rushewa, tambayar a nan ita ce me zai faru da kungiyar ta IS?

Image caption Amurka na bai wa 'yan tawaye taimako don yaki a birnin Raqqa

Paul Rogers ya yi nazari kan al'amura guda uku da suka fara faruwa.

"Zai kasance kamar yakin sari-ka noke, a kasashen Iraki da Siriya, kuma za a ci gaba da fadan ba tare da neman kwace yankuna ba," in ji shi.

"Za kuma ta ci gaba da yada sakonninta ga duniya, kuma ya riga ya samu nasara a kudu maso gabashin Asiya, kamar yadda muka gani a kasar Philippines, da kuma arewacin Afirka."

"Kuma za ta ci gaba da manufofinta na kaddamar da hare-hare ga makiyanta, musamman Birtaniya, da Faransa, da Amurka, da Jamus da sauransu."

Ranar 28 ga watan Yuni, Kungiyar ta wallafa bidiyon wata tattaunawa, inda ta karyata cewa an kwace daularta, inda ta kara da cewa "Idan ma hakan ya kasance gaskiya, ba ya nufin an ci mu da yaki".

Hakkin mallakar hoto Getty Images
Image caption Ana ganin akwai kimanin mayakan IS 'yan kasashen waje 40,000 a kasashen Iraki da Siriya

Mayaka

Masu sharhi sun yi kiyasin cewa akwai kimanin mayakan IS 'yan kasashen waje 40,000 a kasashen Iraki da Siriya. Me zai faru da su idan daular ta su ta fadi?

"Akwai abin da bai kamata a yi wasa da shi ba: Dubban mayakan ba za su watsu ba, "in ji Ali Soufan mawallafin littafin Anatomy of Terror: From the Death of Bin Laden to the Rise of Islamic State, kamar yadda yake rubuce a jaridar New York Times.

"A maimakon haka, akwai makayan kungiyar kafinsu, za su bulla da sabbin hanyoyin tada zaune tsaye."

Paul Rogers yana ganin cewa mafiya yawansu za su koma wasu kungiyoyin jihadin: "Akwai kungiyoyin jihadi da dama a kudancin Asiya, da kuma Arewacin Afirka."

Karin Von Hipper, daraktar cibiyar bincike ta RUSI a birnin Landan, ta shaida wa BBC cewa: "Wannan ba lallai ne ya kasance karshen kungiyar IS ba".

"Ina ganin cewa kungiyoyin jihadi sun zama wasu ababen da ke ci gaba da haddasa matsaloli, kuma za su samu damar yin haka, saboda shekaru da dama na rashin zaman lafiya a kasar ta Iraki, inda babu tartibiyar gwamnati, kamar yadda take a kasar Siriya tare da yakin basasarta."

Hakkin mallakar hoto AFP
Image caption Sojojin Iraki sun kaddamar da hare-haren kwato birnin Mosul a watan Oktoban shekaarr 2016

Kungiyoyin da suke aiki tare

Yayin da yaki da kungiyar IS a birnin Mosul da Raqqa ke zuwa karshe, komai na nuna cewa yankin ya shafe shekaru da dama cikin rashin tabbas.

Ali Soufan ya yi amannar cewa daya daga cikin jagororin kungiyar zai zama mai yada manufofinta a gabashin Libya.

Mista Soufan ya kara da cewa " Wannan kungiya na da dubban mabiya, hasalima su ne suka bai wa Salman Abedi horo, dan kunar bakin waken da ya ta da bam a gidan rawa na Manchester Arena ranar 22 ga watan Mayu."

Ya ce: "Akwai alamun dake cewa gwamnatin Donald Trump na kara karfin sojinta, kuma sojojin Amurka na samun kulawa fiye da lokacin gwamnatin Mista Obama,"

Hakkin mallakar hoto Reuters
Image caption Fiye da fararen hula 800,000 ne suka rasa muhallansu a sakamakon yakin Mosul

"Kimanin shekara 17 ke nan tun bayan da Amurka ta fara yaki a yankin, kuma rashin tsaro a yankin yammacin Turai bai kai yadda yake ba a shekaru 17 da suka gabata, kuma har yanzu abubuwa ba su sauya ba akwai matsalolin rayuwa da dama kuma wannan bai ta'allaka kawai ga yankin Gabas-ta-tsakiya da kuma Afirka ba."

"Indai ba mu dauki sabbin matakai ba a kan sha'anin tsaro a shekaru masu zuwa, abubuwa za su yi muni a 'yan shekaru masu zuwa," kamar yadda ya shaida wa BBC.

"Muna bukatar kara tunanin sauyi kuma mu fara amfani da sabuwar dabara. Amma a yanayin siyasar yanzu ba abu ne mai sauki ba yin wadannan sauye-sauye."

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