IMF: UK economic growth to reach 2.9% in 2014

 

Olivier Blanchard from the IMF said it was clear that their forecasts had been "too pessimistic"

Related Stories

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the UK economy will be the fastest-growing in the G7 this year.

It says the UK will grow 2.9% in 2014, up from a January estimate of 2.4%, and will see growth of 2.5% in 2015.

Overall, the IMF says the global economy strengthened at the end of 2013. It forecasts global growth of 3.6% this year and 3.9% in 2015.

But it sees risks in emerging markets and warns of low inflation in advanced economies and geopolitical issues.

Analysis

This is a relatively upbeat forecast for the world and for the UK in particular.

For the UK, it is yet another substantial upgrade to the IMF's assessment of the outlook. Only 12 months ago, the IMF forecast 1.5% growth for this year.

If the new figure of 2.9% turns out to be right, the UK will be the fastest-growing economy in the G7 major developed nations this year.

The global forecast also sees things getting better. Next year's figure would be just about the same as the average for the 10 years before the financial crisis.

Inevitably there are risks, however, including possible economic fallout from the political crisis in Ukraine.

The IMF also warns about the potential for excessively low inflation - yes, really.

Falling prices or deflation can be very damaging. So far, it is not affecting very many countries. But it is a potentially threatening cloud on the economic horizon.

The predictions come in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, its bi-annual analysis and projections of economic developments.

Global economy

The IMF said the US had seen stronger economic growth as Washington's debt and deficit cleared and predicted the country's economy would grow by 2.8% in 2014 and 3% next year.

But it scaled back its January growth forecast for emerging and developing nations, including India and Brazil, by 0.2 percentage points.

The IMF said the economies were hit as investors were more sensitive to policy weakness, with monetary policy being normalised in some advanced economies.

China's economic growth would be 7.5% for 2014 and 7.3% next year, it said, as it expected authorities in China to rein in their "rapid credit growth".

The IMF said India, South Korea and Indonesia should benefit from an improved export environment, but noted Thailand's prospects would be hit by political instability.

Russia's growth forecast was cut by 0.6 percentage points to 1.3% for the rest of 2014, because of "emerging market financial turbulence and geopolitical tensions relating to Ukraine... on the back of already weak activity", the IMF said.

Meanwhile, it said recovery of Europe's emerging economies would slow in 2014 and would also be hampered by any escalation of the situation in Ukraine.

Emerging Europe's forecast was revised down by 0.35 points to 2.4%.

Last week, the IMF's head warned that the global economy could be heading for years of "sub-par growth".

Christine Lagarde warned that without "brave action", the world could fall into a "low growth trap".

IMF economic growth forecast, in % per country for 2014 and 2015

  • China 7.5, 7.3
  • Russia 1.3, 2.3
  • India, 5.4, 6.4
  • UK 2.9, 2.5
  • US 2.8, 3.0
  • Euro area 1.2, 1.5
  • Emerging markets 4.9, 5.3

She said the global economy would grow by more than 3% this year and next, but that market volatility and tensions in Ukraine posed risks.

Ms Lagarde also urged more action to tackle low inflation in the eurozone.

Exports disappoint

The IMF says that growth has rebounded more strongly than anticipated in the UK on the back of easier credit conditions and increased confidence.

But it cautions that the recovery has been unbalanced, with business investment and exports still disappointing.

For instance, an external shock involving further growth disappointment in emerging market economies could spill over to the euro area, it says.

That, in turn, could spread to the UK through "financial linkages".

"In the United Kingdom, monetary policy should stay accommodative, and recent modifications by the Bank of England to the forward-guidance framework are therefore welcome," the report added.

"Similarly, the government's efforts to raise capital spending while staying within the medium-term fiscal envelope should help bolster recovery and long-term growth."

Danny Alexander said moving away from austerity measures would be "the worst thing possible to do"

In January, the IMF said it was increasing its UK growth forecast for 2014, from a previous 1.9%, to 2.4%. That figure has now been raised again.

Responding to the 2.9% growth prediction, Chancellor George Osborne hailed it as "proof that the economic plan is working" and criticised "growth deniers in the Labour Party" who he said were "intent on talking down the British economy".

For his part, shadow chancellor Ed Balls said the IMF was "right to warn about an unbalanced recovery" and accused the government of "complacently trying to claim that everything is going well".

On Tuesday, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that UK growth in the first part of 2014 had been "robust", and estimated that UK output grew by 0.9% in the three months ending in March.

Nevertheless, NIESR said that the UK economic recovery was "in its infancy" and that it did not expect the Bank of England to raise interest rates until the middle of 2015.

Food and drinks

Earlier on Tuesday, there was further indication of UK growth, with the release of manufacturing and industrial production figures.

UK manufacturing output grew by 1% in February from January, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.

The rise - driven by pharmaceuticals, transport equipment, food, beverages and tobacco - was the biggest since September, and ahead of forecasts.

The year-on-year figure saw output 3.8% higher than in the same month of 2013.

Industrial output, which includes power generation and North Sea oil production as well as manufacturing, climbed 0.9% on the month.

 

More on This Story

Related Stories

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites

Comments

This entry is now closed for comments

Jump to comments pagination
 
  • rate this
    +77

    Comment number 107.

    The important part is growth in manufacturing.

    If that is genuine growth then its a step towards rebalancing our one sided economy.

  • rate this
    +51

    Comment number 75.

    Economies are like tides - they ebb and flow. All politicians can hope to do is fiddle at the edges, they can do that either badly or positively. I have banged on about infrastructure investment on here for years and finally we seem to be getting there. We don't want credit cards being maxed out or sky-high mortgages. We need better roads, railways and airports along with fast broadband for all.

  • rate this
    +69

    Comment number 71.

    The IMF is independent of governments, so this isn't spin put out by any party.

    With growth comes confidence from investors in this country and abroad. Confidence in the UK (as shown by Hitachi moving their rail division to the North East) is what's needed to get more people back into work: growth breeds growth.

    This is good news. Just deal with it.

  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 58.

    The growth deniers and the wrong sort of growth preachers sound bad losers.
    This growth is both national and broad based. Given that the EU is stagnant and deflating, the pound is rising in value and both the depth of the recession combined with the degree of exposure to financial services meant that we were more exposed than most; we still lead the G7 by a street.
    Owing £1.4 trillion its welcome

  • rate this
    +48

    Comment number 54.

    Growth is only good if it is genuine expansion of production. Growth that is only a housing bubble along with other forms of debt expansion is just fodder for the next crash. That is what we have now and the way we organise our money creation allows alternative. 97% of the money we use is debt so to expand the economy we must expand debt. Correct that and we can *start* to gain a stable economy.

 

Comments 5 of 8

 

More Business stories

RSS

BBC Business Live

  1.  
    BITCOIN BIG IN ROMANIA 09:58:
     bitcoin medals

    Bitcoin is big in Romania, says Reuters. The citizen's of Europe's second poorest country apparently remain distrustful of officialdom but are also tech savvy. Reuters adds Romania is among the worst at collecting taxes and fighting fraud, making it poorly equipped to manage the bitcoin.

     
  2.  
    INSOLVENCY FIGURES 09:47:

    Some 27,029 people went into personal insolvency in the second quarter of this year, a 5.1% increase on the same quarter last year, official figures from the Insolvency Service show.

     
  3.  
    MARKET UPATE 09:36:

    European shares are mixed. They started out good after a batch of encouraging company results. Retailer Next is among the big winners - up 2.45% to 6680p on the FTSE 100 so far.

    • The FTSE is 0.12% higher at 6796.35
    • Germany's Dax has just turned negative and is now 0.09% lower at 9589.54
    • The French Cac-40 is also down 0.18% at 4336.92
     
  4.  
    Via Twitter Adam Parsons Business Correspondent

    tweets: "Next now worth slightly more than Sainsbury's and Morrison's put together."

     
  5.  
    GHERKIN SALE 09:14:
    An aerial view of the "City", London"s business disctrict

    London landmark and general troubled child of the City's tall buildings, the Gherkin - otherwise known as 30 St Mary Axe - has been put up for sale for £64m. It was put into receivership with accountants Deloitte managing the place since April. Co-owners Evans Randall and German firm IVG told it to put it up for sale after they failed to reach a deal with their lenders over restructuring the building's mounting debts.

     
  6.  
    BANKERS ETHICS 08.58:
    Book

    Back to the proposed bankers' oath. Would it mean an end to such fines as the £218m Lloyds received yesterday for fiddling rates? Think tank ResPublic, which operates "on the premise that human relationships should once more be positioned as the centre and meaning of an associative society", hopes so. Click here to read what it suggests are the magic words.

     
  7.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 08:45: BBC Radio 4
    Russian President Vladimir Putin

    Former foreign secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind is talking to the Today programme about the potential impact of sanctions on Russia. He says President Putin is unconcerned about his popularity at home. "This isn't about his popularity this is about imposing sanctions that will require Putin to change his policy," he says. Up to now, he says, sanctions have been "pretty useless". Sanctions need to be about serious economic damage to Russia, he adds.

     
  8.  
    UBS PROBE 08:35:
    The floor of the New York Stock Exchange on 28 March, 2014.

    The "Dark Pools" investigation widens to include UBS. The Swiss bank became the latest bank to say it is cooperating with inquiries about these alternative trading systems. Its second quarter report this morning said a clutch of US regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Attorney General, and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority had made inquiries. Banks Barclays and Credit Suisse are also involved in probes.

     
  9.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 08:25:

    Separately the US State Department has accused Russia of violating a key arms control treaty by testing a nuclear cruise missile. Russia tested a ground-launched cruise missile, breaking the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty signed in 1987 during the Cold War, the US says. A senior US official described it as "very serious" but gave little more in the way of detail.

     
  10.  
    PAY KICK? 08:13:

    Two fund managers overheard on the 06:45 to Vauxhall: "It's called a pay away, not a kick back." Business Live (not being perfect) does not know what this means. Any ideas?

     
  11.  
    HEADLINES
  12.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 08:05: BBC Radio 4

    One more from Malcolm Bracken on Today. He doesn't mince his words. He says: "Putin has looted an enormous amount of money from the Russian people." Mr Bracken adds he doesn't think the aim of sanctions will be to "devastate the Russia economy or isolate it from the world." But squeezing "the cronies" will be language Mr Putin can understand, he says.

     
  13.  
    NEXT PROFITS 07:53:
    Woman in picture

    Next also has results. First half profits at the clothing and homeware retailer rose 10.7%. Next tells investors to stand by for better profits of between £775m and £815m. Sales at the physical stores were up 7.5% and through the Next Directory were 16.2% higher.

     
  14.  
    BP PROFITS 07:43:

    BP says rising oil and gas production from new or recently started projects led to increased processing of heavy crude oil by the newly-modernised Whiting refinery contributed to operating cash flow of $7.9bn in the quarter. Total operating cash flow for the first half of 2014 was $16.1bn.

     
  15.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 07:36: BBC Radio 4

    The purpose of sanctions is to target the regime and [Russian president] Putin's cronies, not really the Russian people, Malcolm Bracken, analyst at Redmayne Bentley, tells the Today programme. "The mismatch," he says "Is that Russia needs German money from gas sales even more than Germany needs Russia gas." Germany can get its gas from countries other than Russia, he adds. But Putin can impose far greater economic pain on his people than Angela Merkel can on hers.

     
  16.  
    MORRISON'S CHAIRMAN 07:30:
    Signage for Morrisons supermarket on a trolley handle

    There's confirmation that former Tesco finance director Andrew Higginson will become the the new chairman of rival supermarket Morrison's when Sir Ian Gibson retires in 2015. Mr Higginson will join the board on 1 October as non-executive deputy chairman. He was finance director at Tesco between 1997 and 2012. He is currently chairman of Poundland, N Brown Group and McCurrach UK as well as a non-executive director at BSkyB.

     
  17.  
    BP PROFITS 07:17:
    British Petroleum sign

    BP has reported profits (second-quarter replacement cost profit - which strips out the effect of oil price movements) of $3.2bn, compared with $2.4bn a year earlier.

     
  18.  
    BIG CHEESE 07:13: BBC Breakfast
    Cheese

    The biggest event in the global cheese calendar starts today in Nantwich in Cheshire. Steph McGovern is at the International Cheese Fair for Breakfast along with the 4,500 cheeses there. Andrew Loftus, agriculture manager for Morrison's supermarkets says: "Customers need a big variety, the block cheese, the cheddars, but we also have our own range that we cut and grate in our factories."

     
  19.  
    BANKING ETHICS 07:03: Radio 5 live

    Control Risks' Charles Hecker on Wake Up to Money pulls together the two big topics of the morning - Russia and banking ethics. He says it's the ethics that attract them: "There is a reason why the British banking sector is by a mile the preferred destination for Russian financial transactions. It's seen as transparent and liquid market that is well regulated and is seen as clean." And they also like the flight time and the restaurants, he says.

     
  20.  
    UBS RESULTS 06:53:
    The logo of Swiss bank UBS

    Swiss bank UBS reports second quarter net profit of 792m Swiss francs (£516m), up from 690m francs last time. Results were whacked last year by a $885m settlement with the US housing regulator over the mis-selling of mortgage-backed bonds. The bank has still had to set aside 254m euros (£165.4m) this year, mainly to settle legal claims that it helped wealthy Germans to dodge taxes.

     
  21.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 06:41: BBC Radio 4

    In case you were wondering why sanctions were back on the news menu, last week, European leaders agreed there should be tougher sanctions on Russia after Ukrainian separatists brought down Malaysia Airlines MH17. This week they decide what sanctions should be applied and against whom or what.

     
  22.  
    BANKING ETHICS 06:31: Radio 5 live
    Triumph of Virtue and Nobility

    Would getting bankers to swear an oath promising good behaviour work? That's a suggestion by one think tank, ResPublica. It wants to introduce "Virtuous Banking". But the chairman of the Banking Standards Review Council, Sir Richard Lambert, tells Wake Up to Money an oath won't help to bring that about.

     
  23.  
    GAS GUZZLER 06:21:
    Mayor of London Boris Johnson

    London mayor Boris Johnson wants the drivers of diesel cars to pay an extra £10 - on top of the congestion charge it should be noted - for the pleasure of driving into the centre of the capital according to a report in the Daily Mail today. Other cities are also considering introducing low-emission zones to crack down on diesel fumes. These cars were once encouraged as being less polluting...

     
  24.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 06:08: Radio 5 live

    More from Charles Hecker. He tells Wake Up to Money: "I don't think anybody is that keen on sanctions that are going to impact on their own economic sectors." Part of the problem with European sanctions against Russia is the French have defence deals with Russia, there is a substantial amount of Russia money in the UK's financial services sector and Germany has energy deals with Russia, he adds

     
  25.  
    RUSSIAN SANCTIONS 06:01: Radio 5 live

    Charles Hecker of consultancy Control Risks tells Wake Up to Money targeted sanctions, whether against sectors of the Russian economy or against individuals, would have a potential impact and suggests the Russian economy is already teetering on the edge of recession. But he adds both Cuba and Iran have been subject to far more stringent sanctions and that further sanctions against Russia are unlikely to change the country's behaviour.

     
  26.  
    06:00: Rebecca Marston Business reporter, BBC News

    Yes, we're back. And we're here: bizlive@bbc.co.uk @bbcbusiness - should you wish to get in touch.

     
  27.  
    06.00: Matthew West Business Reporter

    Morning everyone. Yesterday afternoon we had a £218m fine for Lloyds for its part in the 2012 Libor scandal, while the think-tank ResPublica has suggested this morning bankers should take an oath - a bit like doctors - to fulfil their "proper moral and economic purpose". We also have second quarter trading updates from BP and Next this morning, plus more on Russian sanctions.

     

Features

From BBC Capital

Programmes

  • A digger operated via an Oculus Rift and a controllerClick Watch

    Why controlling a heavy digger with a virtual reality helmet might improve safety

BBC © 2014 The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.