UK economy back at pre-crisis level

George Osborne: GDP figures "major milestone" in economic plan

Related Stories

The UK economy has returned to pre-crisis levels by expanding 0.8% in the second quarter of this year.

On an annual basis gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.1%.

The figures show the economy is now worth 0.2% more than it was at its peak in 2008, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The service sector is the only part of the economy that has passed its previous 2008 peak, although that accounts for almost 80% of UK output.

Start Quote

The contribution of shoppers to the recovery remains immense - and the retail trade made the biggest contribution to the latest quarter's services surge”

End Quote

Other key sectors, including construction, industrial production and manufacturing, have yet to outstrip levels reached in 2008.

The UK economy is forecast to be the fastest growing among the G7 developed nations, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

On Thursday, the IMF predicted the UK would expand by 3.2% this year, up from a previous forecast of 2.8%.

Productivity

Chancellor George Osborne said: "Thanks to the hard work of the British people, today we reach a major milestone in our long-term economic plan."

GDP by quarter

But shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, said people were not feeling happier: "With GDP per head not set to recover for three more years and [with] most people still seeing their living standards squeezed this is no time for complacent claims that the economy is fixed."

line

Analysis: Anthony Reuben, BBC head of statistics

Let's take a pinch of salt with these figures.

First of all, this is the preliminary estimate, so it's an educated guess based on about 40% of the economic activity that will go into later estimates.

But also, in two months the ONS will revise these figures for a once-in-15-years change to the methodology.

It will change the treatment in the GDP figures of things like spending on research and development by companies and the government buying weapons.

So the trend is almost certainly right - we can say that there was considerable growth in the economy in the second quarter - but 0.8% is unlikely to be the eventual figure.

And it may turn out that we have not yet reached the 2008 peak, or indeed that we did so a while ago.

line
'Marred'

Output per head is not expected to reach its pre-crisis level until 2017, partly because productivity from those in work remains weak, along with the fact the population as a whole has grown.

Sector graph

The news was given a muted welcome by Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist: "Any celebrations will of course also be marred by the fact that the milestone reminds us that it has taken some six years for the country to merely regain the economic might it had before the financial crisis struck."

Matthew Hall, Par Homes: Improvements still not being seen in mid-Wales

Other countries recovered the output lost to the crisis much earlier than the UK. Germany regained its peak in 2010, with the US and France following a year later.

Set against that are changes due to be made to the way the ONS calculates its figures, which will be brought in in September. These may show the economy was actually stronger in 2008 than had been thought, and therefore the ground was made up sooner.

More on This Story

Related Stories

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external Internet sites

More Business stories

RSS

BBC Business Live

  1.  
    RBS STATEMENT 07:21: Kamal Ahmed BBC Business editor

    Royal Bank of Scotland has given a statement to the BBC's business editor, Kamal Ahmed, it says: "The announcement we made about moving our registered head office to England was part of a contingency plan to ensure certainty and stability for our customers, staff and shareholders should there be a 'Yes' vote. That contingency plan is no longer required. Following the result it is business as usual for all our customers across the UK and RBS."

     
  2.  
    REFERENDUM REACTION 07:14: BBC Radio 4

    Patrick MacDonald former boss of John Menzies, tells the Today programme the debate over Scottish independence has changed the country forever. "Things will never be the same again," he says. There is now "a need to reform our 300 year old constitution" and the country also needs to work at reconciliation to "make sure businesses stay in Scotland".

     
  3.  
    RBS 07:08: BBC Radio 4

    A little more from Mike Amey on the referendum result. He tells Today: " I suspect there's a very large sigh of relief at RBS [over the result] They don't have to worry about where they were going to be based and how they were going to conduct their future business."

     
  4.  
    MARKET REACTION 07:07: BBC Radio 4

    Mike Amey, managing director and portfolio manage at bond trader PIMCO tells Today he expects the markets to open higher as a result of the Scottish referendum result. "It will be back to the data for our traders and what the Bank of England will do [on interest rates]."

     
  5.  
    MARKET REACTION 06:49: Radio 5 live

    Adam Parsons is in the City at the offices of stockbrokers IG with their chief market strategist, Brenda Kelly. She says the opening of the FTSE 100 might be quite as dramatic as some expect. That's because markets have been predicting this outcome over the last few days. However, she says, it could "break through 6930" which would be a record high.

     
  6.  
    06:42: Via Email Linda Yueh Chief business correspondent

    There are other uncertainties now for Scotland after this vote. But, for markets at least, the big uncertainty that could have lingered for a year and half over the currency and the economy is lessened and sentiment is positive as a result.

     
  7.  
    06:33: Louise Cooper, CooperCity market blog

    "So it's up up and away this morning, the question is how far does it [the pound] go before reality sets back in and other political fears begin to dominate: The rows in Westminster over devolution max which has been promised. The General Election and the UK referendum on EU membership. Party conferences season resumes next week so there will be plenty of headlines to be written about the next set of political risks."

     
  8.  
    CITY REACTION 06:27:

    The Lord Mayor of the City of London, Fiona Woolf has welcomed the outcome of the Scottish referendum. "The proposed enhanced devolution that Scotland will experience while remaining in the UK will enable its national spirit to thrive while our entwined economies and business communities prosper together," the Lord Mayor said.

     
  9.  
    YES CAMPAIGN CONCEDES 06:23: BBC Radio 4
    Scottish first minister Alex Slamond

    Scotland's first minister Alex Salmond has hailed 1.6 million votes for independence. He concedes that "we now know there is going to be a majority for the "No" campaign". Scotland has, by majority at this stage, voted not to become an independent country," he adds. He expects devolution promises to be honoured with "rapid force".

     
  10.  
    ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND Via Email Kamal Ahmed BBC Business editor

    With No confirmed as the winner in the referendum, we can expect the Royal Bank of Scotland to say there is now no need to move domicile to London. The bank had prepared for a "Yes" vote by saying last week that it would move its headquarters from Edinburgh. I wouldn't be surprised if Ross McEwan, the chief executive, re-iterated the bank's commitment to Scotland. I am sure RBS's executives are relieved that the upheaval of independence will now not happen.

     
  11.  
    POUND STRENGTHENS 06:12:

    A decisive win for the No campaign could lead to big spike in the Pound. Jeremy Cook, economist at World First says. The obvious risk to the currency markets was a Yes, and that would have caused a big sell off. Now the markets will go back to concentrating on the fundamentals of the UK economy," he adds.

     
  12.  
    SCOTLAND INVESTMENT 06:01:

    Simon Walker, director general of business group the Institute of Directors has given an interview to the BBC. He says he thinks the government will now give the green light to investment projects that had been previously held up because of the uncertainty caused by the independence referendum. He adds the ending of that uncertainty will be positive for business.

     
  13.  
    POUND STRENGTHENS 05:54:
    pound versus dollar

    This chart shows the pound against the dollar over the last month. You can see it dipped to a low of $1.6071 on 10 September. That was after a poll in the Sunday Times showed a lead for the "No" campaign. It is now trading at $1.65. That's a move of 5 cents which is pretty big over two weeks.

     
  14.  
    MARKET UPDATE 05:47: BBC Radio 4

    Asian markets are up nearly 2% overnight BBC business correspondent Linda Yueh, tells Today. The market indications are that the FTSE 100 will open 0.7% higher. That's not exactly a surge but it is a positive reaction.

     
  15.  
    BANK OF ENGLAND 05:42: BBC Radio 4

    Justin Rowlatt is down at the Bank of England for BBC Radio 4's Today programme: He says the lights are on and staff are busy working inside. Although perhaps not quite as frantically as if Scotland was looking on course to vote Yes in the referendum. Bank governor Mark Carney cut short a meeting to fly home overnight. "He may have had a wasted trip," Justin says.

     
  16.  
    POUND STRENGTHENS 05:36:
    Pound dollar

    This chart shows how the pound has faired against the dollar since the polls closed in Scotland on Thursday evening. As you can see it's strengthened from a low of $1.63 to above $1.65, that's its highest point since the start of the month. In currency market terms it's also a huge move in a short space of time.

     
  17.  
    05:30: Ben Morris Business Reporter

    The pound has bounded higher overnight in reaction to the Scotland vote. More reaction through the morning. Stay with us.

     
  18.  
    05:30: Matthew West Business Reporter

    Morning folks. It looks like - with 26 of 32 local authorities now having declared the result of their ballots- that the No campaign is on course to win the Scottish independence referendum. We'll bring you all the reaction from the financial markets and the business community as it comes in. As always if you want to get in touch you can email us at bizlivepage@bbc.co.uk or tweet us @bbcbusiness.

     

Features

From BBC Capital

Programmes

  • A person taking a photo of fireworks on a smartphoneClick Watch

    A look at the latest gadgets which could make it easier to take the perfect night-time picture

BBC © 2014 The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.

This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.