The IPCC, Elvis and the elephant in the room

The IPCC presents the last of three highly anticipated reports in Berlin on Sunday The IPCC presented the last of three highly anticipated reports in Berlin on Sunday

Everywhere you go in Berlin there are nostalgic echoes of the past - in the shadow of the wall's remnants, old Trabants take tourists on nostalgic car rides to times long gone.

And at the conference centre where IPCC delegates have been ensconced for a week deliberating on how to save the world from dangerous climate change, other ghostly voices have been making their presence felt.

Every night at the Estrel, Elvis lives. And so does Marilyn Monroe.

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The world can tackle climate change, said the leaders of this group - it is not rocket science, it is mostly economics”

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For the location is best known as the home of musical impersonators, the walls festooned with posters showing the capes, medallions and curled lips of the men who would be King.

In this slightly surreal atmosphere, the more sober suited ladies and gentlemen of the IPCC finalised a plan to end the world's addiction to carbon.

But their report clearly echoed the sentiments of the Memphis legend.

"A little less conversation, a little more action please..."

The world can tackle climate change said the leaders of this working group on mitigation: it is not rocket science, it is mostly economics.

Their Summary for Policymakers pointed out that investments in renewables needed to triple, subsidies to fossil fuels needed to decline and a switch to natural gas could help wean countries off coal.

Window of opportunity

But timing - in music, comedy and climate science - is everything.

The report's authors say there is a double-glazed window of opportunity that is rapidly closing.

If the world embraces low-emissions energy sources on a huge scale before 2030, the carbon curve can be bent in our favour.

If we don't act in time, we'll be trying to concoct some scheme to suck the CO2 out of the air and bury it in the ground.

The big changes being proposed by the IPCC can be done for what seems a bargain price of a 0.06% reduction in consumption growth every year until the end of the century.

"Statistically you won't notice," said Dr Ryer Gerlagh, who was a co-ordinating lead author on the economics chapter of this report.

"Developing countries may grow not by 5% per year, but 4.9%; in the UK you may not grow by 2% a year but 1.9% instead. There won't be any statistician who would be able to make the difference between the two."

'Huge pain'

So has the IPCC discovered a painless path to a carbon-free nirvana down in the jungle room?

Not quite.

In this Dec. 6, 2010 file photo a wind turbine is pictured in the in front of a steaming coal power plant in Gelsenkirchen, Germany The use of renewable energy such as wind and solar power would have to triple said the IPCC report

"There will be huge pain. We will have to change our energy supply systems. That may not cost us a lot of income, but we will have to think about windmills, solar panels - major changes. It is going to be tough," said Dr Gerlagh.

Fossil fuels will only have a future with technologies that capture their carbon. Many greens are unhappy with these concepts, believing that they're the devil in disguise.

Whatever the merits of the technologies, we just can't take the risk and we have to find a way to insure ourselves against the worst, says Dr Gerlagh.

"We should pay a risk premium, not because we are definitely certain the world is going to end, but we don't like the risk of playing with the Earth. We've got only one."

Who will pay?

While everyone is looking to the challenges ahead, some other participants here have been looking wistfully at the past, and not just because of Marilyn or Elvis.

Members of environmental activist group Greenpeace pose with a giant placard which reads "Power to the people! Clean energy now" in front of the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin April 13 Greenpeace activists held a demonstration at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate after the report was released

Some of the delegates were concerned that the past emissions that got the world into this climate mess seem to have been forgotten about.

"Countries are developing in different ways. There are some changes in their emissions patterns, but there are also historical emissions we have to take onboard," said Dr Yacob Mulugetta from the University of Surrey, another of the report's authors.

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There are divisions appearing about who should cut, and who should pay ”

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"The key question is how do you bring in the past emissions and align them with the future?"

This question seems to have sparked some of the same divisions between the developed and developing world that have hampered the UN climate negotiation process.

The scientists appear to have agreed on the causes, impacts and solutions to the climate challenge, but there are divisions appearing about who should cut, and who should pay. As we get clarity on the medicine, people begin to worry about the bill.

"They see the elephant from different angles," said Dr Mulugetta, "and it poses its challenges."

Matt McGrath Article written by Matt McGrath Matt McGrath Environment correspondent

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  • rate this

    Comment number 482.

    Ordinary soldiers & relief workers are sent out to 'die for democracy' & to risk their lives caring for the victims of 'democratic deficit'; but as to advice on the meaning of democracy, of the need for equal partnership to enjoy the fruits of democracy made real, no single government or bloc or UN resolution yet affords honesty, yet seeks to be taken seriously by a world desperate for leadership.

  • rate this

    Comment number 481.

    To be supported by the UN Environmental programme (as well as the World Meteorological Association), the work of the IPCC - of thousands of scientists volunteering their expertise - must yield outputs that are acceptable to the UN, beyond any member state political objection: policy-relevant yet policy-neutral; on due political process and on policy-prescription, utterly 'scientifically' silent.

  • rate this

    Comment number 480.

    The UN, with the World Meteorological Organisation, has through the IPCC given the world a clear scientific view of climate change & potential consequences, environmental and socio-economic. As to timely global response, the UN, WMO and BBC have as much to say about our democratic deficit as the proverbial three monkeys. Any progress will be late, at career-risk; or very late, from catastrophe.

  • rate this

    Comment number 479.

    465. thefrogstar

    "Greenpeace activists held a demonstration at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate after the report was released."

    And, by golly, the BBC was there to make sure they got free publicity for envito-political activism, which is all this jamboree was about.


    The quote about Greenpeace was the caption to the photo - which is credited to Reuters, not the BBC.

  • rate this

    Comment number 478.

    @468.Malcolm Latarche
    Indeed Govts don't need to invent new ways to tax but its not about that.

    then why does every HYS on this topic have loads who claim its all a ploy to con them out of taxes, clearly many claim its exactly about new ways to tax - despite the fact that Govts have never needed to invent things to tax , they've just taxed what they see about the place

  • rate this

    Comment number 477.

    The Elephant in the room is over population lets not factor that in to anything where endless debt and rampant capitalism is needed for the top 1%

  • Comment number 476.

    This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

  • rate this

    Comment number 475.

    Shades of the inquisition's handling of Galileo: there is one truth only. The IPCC is not an interest group like any other. It has a strong political agenda, represents vested interests, and has now gathered its own momentum. Its findings are predictable. Who pays for all this? And for other research and views?

  • rate this

    Comment number 474.

    Going green is easy....I put on twenty pairs of warm...
    can't get my shoes on though..neighbours complain of smell...
    don't make me angry....

  • rate this

    Comment number 473.

    Carbon capture is doesn't work unless you use energy to compress the CO2, which means any carbon based fuel will still go up in price compared to alternatives, which are dropping in price. Bio-char can't be done without the same energy use. Carbon energy is already obsolete, it just hasn't died out yet.

  • rate this

    Comment number 472.

    Wow, the BBC are really pushing the war on climate.

    Its as unwinnable as the war on terror and the war on drugs. But equally as expensive, and that's the point. This is the latest money spinner designed to tax the world's citizens with nothing in return.

    And the BBC is leading the propaganda charge as usual at the behest of the money-men.

    Close this treacherous organisation down.

  • rate this

    Comment number 471.

    We can discuss non-stories like this but not comment on the arrogance of Nigel Evans who demands that someone else should pay his legal bill. As successive govts have cut the legal aid bill this is what you have left. Rich ppl like Evans who HAVE savings of £100K+ who could actually AFFORD lawyers, something out of MANY ordinary people's reach.

  • rate this

    Comment number 470.


    IPCC backed by 'fear of God'? By that virtual presence - perhaps the underlying reality of our being - by 'Whose' light we may see more clearly and constantly how best we should or might think and act. In some kind of dialogue each of us may come rightly or wrongly to 'thank God', for how in fact we want to think & act, 'ever to get better at it'. Judged "in as much as.."

  • rate this

    Comment number 469.

    463 - All for All

    I would hazard an uninformed guess that you echo what most think, or feel at sometime within their lives. No difference really, except that you have a melodic way of putting it. Maybe a spiritual perspective? It still remains as almost a definate, most know & witness what you know, but none have an answer, except one implausible to fulfil without "spark". Inevitable as destined?

  • rate this

    Comment number 468.

    Indeed Govts don't need to invent new ways to tax but its not about that. The IPCC's declared role is to redistribute wealth by use of such taxes. Haven't you heard about the $100Bn a year promised to developing countries and financed by levies on fossil fuels used in the west.

  • rate this

    Comment number 467.

    Despite all our human "intelligence", we have failed to learn from the evidence of the past environments.
    Iron ore and coal deposits come in layers seperated by many other layers. While not exactlt regular, there is a pattern to tthem.
    Iron oxide was laid down because microbes changed the atmosphere.
    Upset Gaia balance and it retaliates.
    They killed off themselves like yeast in fermenting wine.

  • rate this

    Comment number 466.

    omegaman @461
    "all for all belief"

    Our 'evolved' genetic instincts show variation, enough of us having instincts 'good enough' to allow sufficient social function - in family & community - such that 'experiments' can be tried towards cultural 'evolution', successes not necessarily to be handed-on directly but perhaps to re-surface from legend & history, e.g. partnership, fear of God, stewardship.

  • rate this

    Comment number 465.

    "Greenpeace activists held a demonstration at Berlin's Brandenburg Gate after the report was released."

    And, by golly, the BBC was there to make sure they got free publicity for envito-political activism, which is all this jamboree was about.

    Carbon dioxide is good for plants and is not about to destroy the world. Get over it, because China and the rest of the world are ignoring you.

  • rate this

    Comment number 464.

    No, the real elephant isn't population growth. It's overconsumption. Per capita consumption varies widely across the world

    THE issue, people continue to ignore when advocating population control, which is just a phrase but if you consider how it is to be achieved. Who can and who can't have children and how many? Rations? Old Chinese policy of taking out wombs? Ghastly.

  • rate this

    Comment number 463.

    omegaman @461
    "I struggle"
    Thanks for trying

    Can life & politics be simpler than in 'equal partnership'?

    None born 'knowing fairness', we soon 'get it', Then we have to be 'educated' to accept that society - not just 'life' - is unfair: so unfair as to threaten all we hold dear... life, belonging, family, people, planet.

    Escaped to university, I saw at 18. If helped could have managed by 4 / 5?


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