Is George Osborne right to look confident after 'mini-Budget'?

 

"I can tell the House that we are no closer to balancing the books than when we first promised to do it. We are not on course to meet our debt target. We now need to put up taxes and cut spending until at least 2018. We're making progress. We're sticking to our Plan."

Cue Tory MPs shouting "hear, hear" as the chancellor sits down to be congratulated by the prime minister.

Those weren't, of course, his exact words in his Autumn Statement, but they do sum up his grim message.

The politics of today's mini-Budget are very curious. At a time when his critics - and Ed Balls in particular - are able to say "I told you so", George Osborne looked and sounded confident whilst the shadow chancellor looked the reverse.

Here's why the chancellor thinks he got the politics right - and why he may be wrong :

  • The chancellor hailed the fact today that the deficit is still falling and so too borrowing, contrary to most economists (and my) expectations. I'm told that Treasury officials only saw this data a little over a week ago and couldn't believe their luck. It allowed George Osborne to claim that the government is still making progress.
  • He believes that so long as the public perceive the problem with the British economy to be borrowing they will see the government's budget hawks as the solution and Labour as the problem.
  • The government believes its chosen targets for cuts are popular. Beware when they talk of squeezing bureaucrats, benefits and the better off.
  • Alongside that pain he's offered voters some gains - the cancellation of the next planned fuel duty rise and another small income tax cut by an increase in the personal tax allowance.
  • The Treasury's latest attempt to stimulate growth is to cut business taxes and to switch £5 billion from day to day "current" spending to investment or "capital" spending. This has already been welcomed by business.

One of the oldest political clichés of them all is that you shouldn't judge a budget on the day. The reason sayings become cliches is because they are usually true.

 
Nick Robinson Article written by Nick Robinson Nick Robinson Political editor

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  • rate this
    +1

    Comment number 422.

    Taxes and Minimum Wage..
    If the government want to cut the social security bill, then the government should stop paying top-ups to low wages and make employers pay decent minimum wage. Why should the taxpayers have to top-up wages through paying into the system, when if public sector and private companies and employers paid a proper wage, the taxes could be better used to heal the British economy.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 421.

    'remember that austerity hasn't arrived yet.' - jh 419

    **

    It certainly hasn't for certain groups: top private sector pay is up 27% and the state-rescued City is starting to fizzle again.

    Meanwhile it'll be decades before our finances are back in the comfort zone and that's regardless of UK economic policy.

    The main policy goal should be that the bill is paid by those who can afford it.

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 420.

    BBC Engineering the Liverpool Political Demographics AGAIN !..
    Tories getting aplauded in Liverpool Jog on BBC.
    Question Time IS A JOKE !

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 419.

    #418 IDB

    Alastair Darling said, in the House of Commons, that Britain's public finances would not return to a sustainable level until 2032 (under Labour's fiscal rules).

    This was probably optimistic, but he was right to point this out. Forget 2018, and remember that austerity hasn't arrived yet.

    So at least 20 years to go. Enjoy!

  • rate this
    0

    Comment number 418.

    jh66 415
    Interesting post. 'Osborne is Continuity Brown'(Cameron is continuity Blair.) Parliament is theatre which must have a pleasing ending. So ruling out true austerity. Too scary but perhaps necessary?
    Still versions of austerity vary. I doubt mine and yours would agree right now. Perhaps why we are treading water under a coalition i.e. we couldn't make up our mind what we wanted.

 

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