How today will unfold

It's the second coming of the EU Referendum Bill today - so here's how I expect the morning to unfold.

Tory MPs have been entertained with bacon butties in No 10, to fortify them for the debate ahead.

I'm told John Redwood, Michael Fallon and Michael Gove were spotted.

Picking bacon from between their teeth, they will then gather in the Chamber.

9:30am - Mr Speaker calls the Commons to order.

Before he utters the timeless incantation "the Clerk will now proceed to read the orders of the day", there may be a point of order, moving that the House do now sit in private.

This is a motion that can only be moved once per day, and moving it before the House has started to discuss a bill is a good way of (1) using up time, (2) checking how many MPs are around and (3) forestalling its use at a less convenient time later on.

But with a large contingent of Tories present, the usual Friday worries about the business falling if less than 40 MPs vote are rather beside the point on this occasion.

If the motion is moved, there may be a division, if the Speaker is not convinced by the relative volume of the shouts of Aye and No, that the motion is lost. An actual division would take about 15 minutes, with opponents of the bill dawdling in the lobbies.

9.45am-9.50am - The Conservative former minister Bob Neill will move the second reading of his bill. Remember, it is, in theory at least, his bill. It is not a government bill because the Lib Dems won't have it, but the reality is that it was drafted last year by the Conservative Party, and to become law must now be passed in exactly the same form as it left the Commons in the last parliamentary year.

The debate then opens - with the contributions from the party front benches coming towards the end. This being a private member's bill, there won't be the fixed opening and winding speeches from the front benches that would be routine in debates on a government bill.

Watch out for:

* Ostentatious displays of loyalty to party and referendum bill strategy for Tory backbenchers suspected of UKIP-ish sympathies, with frequent repetitions of the mantra that only a majority Conservative government will deliver the referendum, and that a vote for UKIP would make a referendum less, not more likely.

* At least an intervention from UKIP standard-bearer Douglas Carswell.

* Labour MPs keeping the debate going while Tories mostly keep their powder pretty dry, offering only short speeches. They may put down a few markers for amendments to be put later on, at report stage - my bet is that someone will suggest Scottish style votes for 16 year-olds. Last time this bill was debated, Labour veteran Mike Gapes spoke at verrrrrry great length.

* Not too much Lib Dem presence - although Martin Horwood would cross the road to fight the pro-EU corner in any parliamentary debate.

12.30pm-1pm - Mr Neill is likely to choose a moment at about this point to move a "closure motion", to end the debate and put the question ("that the bill be read a second time").

MPs will then vote on whether or not to vote on the bill... and the rules require that at least 100 support the motion - a mere majority is not enough, without that.

Since Conservative MPs have been required to attend, there should be no problem about winning the motion - and then they will move on, almost immediately, to a vote on the second reading itself. Last time round, Labour abstained.

With the second reading (almost certainly) won, the chamber will them empty pretty rapidly, leaving Lib Dem John Hemming to move the second private member's bill on the agenda - which continues his campaign for more transparency in the Family Courts.