A new Tory leader is about to be Bourne

A month today both Andrew R T Davies and Nick Ramsay will be smiling, applauding and proclaiming that the race to lead the Welsh Conservatives in the Assembly has 'reinvigorated the party'.

One of them, of course, will be smiling through gritted teeth and having to applaud the other one who's just won the right to succeed Nick Bourne.

On this morning's Good Morning Wales Angela Burns (the best candidate the Tories never had if you listen to politicians from other parties ... or is that Paul Davies ..?) came out in support of Nick Ramsay. Why? Because, bluntly, she thinks Andrew R T Davies would make a very strong leader but would take the party too far to the right - out of view of those soft Plaid and Labour voters to which Nick Ramsay, in her view, would appeal.

There is, say camp Ramsay, a real momentum behind his campaign. He'll certainly be supported by as many of his colleagues in Cardiff Bay as Mr Davies. Neutral party voices, too, suggest the result will be much closer than the easy R-T-victory many have and are still anticipating.

I doubt camp R T are panicking, mind. Their man used his self-imposed time on the back benches to talk to members around the country, be seen listening to them and offering support and practical help to local candidates just when they needed it. All that amounts to a job pretty well done for a man who was already eyeing the top job.

Why had we heard so much more about the race to lead the Welsh Labour party by this stage? The same question is asked and answered rather niftily over at Wales Home. It all makes perfect sense - until one man crosses the finishing line that is and has to win over the sort of voters who don't even know there was a race, let alone who won.

Tonight the candidates go head to head on Dragon's Eye.

Tomorrow the ballot papers are sent out to the five thousand or so party members in Wales.

If you haven't yet, then you can read Nick Ramsay's manifesto here and Andrew R T Davies's manifesto here.