Which way is it going?

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Everyone keeps asking me which way the EU referendum is going to go.

I tell them I have no crystal ball and that I see the same poll results as they do.

But what I do say is that whenever I turn up with a camera to ask people how they're going to vote, there are an awful lot of over fifties wanting to talk about leaving.

This may be a reflection that those supporting a Brexit may be more likely to want to talk about it than those who want to remain.

In other words: are there shy remainers out there in the way that there have been shy Tories in the past?


Last week I was out with Peter Hain, the man leading Labour's remain campaign in Wales, as he knocked on doors in Brynaman, right on the edge of his former Neath constituency.

Before we started filming, he outlined a typical conversation with a traditional Labour voter.

He said it quite often started with serious concern about immigration, followed by confusion over Labour's position and then finally a conversation in which he says his team are convincing people to consider a remain vote.

We started filming and within seconds that very same conversation, which he had just described with uncanny accuracy, actually took place on camera (we showed some of it on Wales Today last Friday).

There is clearly concern and confusion. From Labour's perspective, part of the problem here could be the apparent lack of enthusiasm for the EU displayed by Jeremy Corbyn.

Working time directive

After Brynaman, I hot-footed it to the centre of Cardiff where Mr Corbyn was giving a rally and when I asked him whether he was that bothered about remaining in the EU, he answered yes because he didn't want to see us losing the working time directive.

With all due respect to the working time directive, which limits the hours that people work across the EU, it doesn't strike me as the kind of issue that's going to get them marching to the ballot box in their hundreds of thousands on the 23rd.

Compare that with the leave message about taking control of your destiny, and you get an idea of why those going to vote leave appear to be more passionate.

That said, Carwyn Jones and other remain campaigners are now introducing a Welsh dimension and a harder edge to their warnings.

One such claim was made in the Senedd chamber this week from the First Minister that one of the big transport schemes, the south Wales metro rail project, would not go ahead if there was a Brexit because of the impact on EU funds.

Killer fact

Leave campaigners feel they have momentum. This week they brought together two emotive subjects with the claim that the NHS would struggle to cope because of a rise in the population if we stay in.

Their projection of a rise in EU net migration of 130,000 in Wales is based on Turkey joining the club.

They know it's far higher than the official projections, but they also know those official projections on net migration in the EU have proved to be consistently wrong in recent years.

Another question people ask me is what is the truth behind all the claims. They want a killer fact that will put their indecision to bed.

The uncomfortable truth for many is that there is no such thing as a fact about what will happen in the future.

They won't have all the answers at their fingertips, and instead they're going to have to use their judgement and gut instinct.

Some seem emboldened by that prospects while others are scared, and may not make up their mind until they are in the voting booth.

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