Wales politics

Welsh voters might back EU if referendum run again - poll

EU and Wales flags

Wales might vote to remain in the EU if the referendum was run again, a new opinion poll has suggested.

A ITV Wales/Cardiff University YouGov poll put Remain on 46% and Leave on 41%, while 8% would not vote and and 5% said they did not know.

Wales voted 52.5% to 47.5% to Leave the EU on 23 June.

The poll also suggested support for Labour at both Westminster and the assembly had fallen to its lowest level since the 2010 election.

The poll asked how respondents would vote if another EU referendum was held tomorrow.

"If we take out the un-decideds and those who wouldn't vote, these results equate to 53% to 47% balance in favour of Remain," said Prof Roger Scully of Cardiff University.

"The key words there, though, are 'since the referendum'.

"Unless those supporting continued EU membership can find some way of overturning or rerunning the vote, their views may now count for very little."

For Westminster elections, the parties were ranked at:

  • Labour, 34% (down 5% on the last poll conducted at the start of June)
  • Conservative, 23% (up 1%)
  • Plaid Cymru, 16% (up 2%)
  • UKIP, 16% (down 2%)
  • Liberal Democrats, 8% (up 2%)
  • Others, 3% (up 1%)

For the constituency seats at the assembly:

  • Labour, 32% (down 2%)
  • Plaid Cymru, 23% (no change)
  • Conservative, 19% (up 1%)
  • UKIP, 16% (up 1%)
  • Liberal Democrats, 7% (no change)
  • Others, 3% (no change)

For regional AMs seats:

  • Labour, 29% (down 3%)
  • Plaid Cymru, 24% (up 3%)
  • Conservative, 18% (no change)
  • UKIP, 15% (up 1%)
  • Liberal Democrats, 6% (no change)
  • Others 8%

Prof Scully said: "In short, this poll confirms what we might have suspected from the recent bad torrent of bad news - that the Labour party is in some difficulty.

"Even in its historic Welsh bastion it is reaching levels of electoral unpopularity not seen since the days of Gordon Brown's leadership and hardly ever experienced by a major party when it is in opposition in London.

"The Conservatives' recent problems have hardly placed them in a good position to take immediate advantage of Labour's struggles.

The 16% score for Plaid Cymru at a Westminster election was the best the party had ever done in a YouGov poll, he added.

Respondents were also asked if they would vote to make Wales an independent country at a referendum - 15% said yes, 65% said no and 20% said they would not vote or did not know.

This rose to 19% yes and 61% no if Scotland voted to become independent at the same time.

If it meant Wales could remain part of the EU while others left, 28% said yes and 53% said no, with 20% saying they would not vote or did not know.

The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre, had a sample of 1,010 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov from 30 June - 4 July.

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