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Thursday 5 March Published at 00:11
Issued by the Met Office
EARLY YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for Scotland.
Updated 0000 on Thu 05 March 2015
Valid from 1200 Fri 06 March to1200 on Sun 08 March.
Rain will be persistent and heavy at times through much of Friday and Saturday and lasting into Sunday morning. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding and some travel disruption, especially on Saturday and on Sunday morning.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 2 March Published at 10:00
Is winter coming or going?
March signals the start of the meteorological spring which we tend to associate with very changeable conditions; early morning frosts, occasional showers and a gradual increase in temperature. The winter months are December-February and whilst provisional statistics suggest it's very likely that the UK has seen its sunniest winter since records began in 1929, figures for temperature and rainfall have been fairly average.
Early figures for February show a drier and cooler than average month thanks to high pressure and settled conditions at the start.This trend for cooler than average conditions looks set to continue into March with strong winds, chilly temperatures, overnight frosts and heavy wintry showers. As we move towards the middle of the month, high pressure seeks to establish itself bringing more settled weather and a gradual increase in daytime temperatures.
Monday 2 March—Sunday 8 March
A wintry feel to the start of spring
Monday will be characterised by strong winds and gales across the UK bringing a mix of sunshine and showers. The best of the sunshine will be found in southern and eastern areas with heavy, thundery showers to the north and west. These showers are likely to bring hail and snow at times, particularly over higher ground but even to low levels for a time. Mid-single figure temperatures will feel much colder in the wind. Tuesday brings a slight easing of the wind but with further heavy, thundery and wintry showers for the north and west. A ridge of high pressure will build in through the middle part of the week to settle things down with fewer showers and much lighter winds but this will allow a widespread sharp frost for Thursday morning. Through the end of the week a band of rain will slip south-eastwards across the UK before an area of high pressure starts to push in from the south bringing drier and less windy conditions.
Monday 9 March—Sunday 15 March
Starting to feel a bit more spring-like
As high pressure continues to build from the south, much of the UK will see dry and settled weather with temperatures near or slightly above average by day but with temperatures falling away quickly overnight with widespread frost. It is likely that the settled weather will bring periods of sunny weather but there will also be cloudier interludes. Across northwestern areas it looks likely that there will be occasional outbreaks of rain as weather systems from the Atlantic sneak around the top of the ridge of high pressure.
Monday 16 March—Sunday 29 March
Staying settled for most but still chilly by night
In the second half of March it looks probable that the UKs weather will be dominated by high pressure at first, but that this will weaken and become more localised to the south of the by the end of the month. Under the high pressure, conditions will remain dry and settled with mild temperatures by day and cold, possibly frosty nights. Further north, sporadic rain and showers will continue to edge around the high pressure but any extended wet and windy period looks unlikely.
Will April bring the customary showers?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 9 March
Thursday 5 March Published at 03:39
Largely dry with sunny spells. Rain in the far northwest.
Dry with bright or sunny spells for most. Patchy rain, mainly in the far northwest where it will turn heavier and more persistent later. Windy in the north with gales in the northwest. Milder than of late.
Rain continuing across some northwestern areas with clearer, showery conditions across the far north. Dry elsewhere with some clear skies but mild and frost free. Remaining windy in the northwest.
Generally rather cloudy but with some sunny spells, particularly in the south and east. Persistent rain continuing across northwest Scotland. Windy with gales in the northwest. Staying mild.
Outlook for Saturday to Monday
Windy with gales and persistent rain across northwestern areas on Saturday, mostly dry elsewhere. Rain moving southeast during Sunday but becoming lighter. Further wind and rain spreads northeast on Monday.