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Thursday 2 July Published at 21:36
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for England, Wales and parts of Scotland.
Issued at 1014 on Thu 2nd Jul 2015
Valid from 1900 on Fri 3rd to 1200 on Sat 4th.
Isolated heavy, and possibly severe, thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday evening across parts of England and Wales. These are likely to become more frequent later and spread northwards towards southern Scotland. Some torrential downpours are possible leading to localised surface water flooding, with large hail and frequent lightning also possible hazards.
The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 29 June Published at 10:00
Warming up at last!
So far, summer 2015 has been a little on the cool side. During the first half of June, average daily maximum temperatures were slightly lower than would normally be expected.The last full week of June did bring some warmer conditions to southern areas of the UK though, with the highest temperature of 2015 so far recorded at Gravesend, Kent where the temperature reached 27.8 C.
As we head into early July, the UK's weather is set to take a rather dramatic turn! Intense heat that has been building for several days across the Iberian peninsula will be drawn up towards the UK on light southerly winds. Southern parts of the UK are set for a spell of hot and humid weather, with temperatures soaring into the thirties. Even the far north of Scotland will see highs into the mid to high twenties by the end the middle of the week. The warm air will be accompanied by a risk of some heavy thunderstorms though.
By the second week of July, we expect to see a return of a slightly cooler and fresher Atlantic influence on the UK weather. Towards the end of the month, there are signs that high pressure will start to dominate weather conditions.
Read on to find out the details...
Monday 29 June—Sunday 5 July
Turning hot and humid
The week is expected to start on a pleasant note, with plenty of sunshine and temperatures peaking between 17 Celsius in the north and 24 Celsius in the south. There will be the risk of a few showers across western Scotland, and later Northern Ireland, but elsewhere conditions should be dry.
Tuesday is expected to be similarly pleasant day, with temperatures higher than on Monday, perhaps reaching 30 Celsius in the far southeast. A few showers and cloudier skies will affect the far northwest. On Tuesday afternoon, isolated thundery showers may develop across southern Scotland and northern England.
The aforementioned warm and very humid air that originated in Iberia will move in from the south overnight into Wednesday, bringing a very muggy night to many parts that will make for difficult sleeping. Thereafter, at time of writing, we envisage that Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, and in fact year!
On what will be a very humid and close day, southeastern areas of England are expected to hit around 35 Celsius (95 Fahrenheit), with the brighter areas of Northern Scotland peaking at around 26 Celsius. A few thundery showers may develop across western areas, where sea fog will also be prevalent.
Through Thursday and Friday, fresher, slightly cooler air will slowly move in from the west to restrict the hottest and most humid weather to the far southeastern corner of England, where temperatures could again just scrape into the thirties. A few thundery showers are again possible, and will also be most prevalent in the far southeast.
Just when you might have been forgiven for thinking that the hot and humid spell was over, Saturday will herald another sticky and very warm day for all but the far northwest, as another pulse of hot and moist air and accompanying thundery showers moves up from the near continent.
Through Sunday, cooler and fresher Atlantic air is expected to eventually win out and push the heat and humidity away to the east.
Monday 6 July—Sunday 12 July
A much fresher feel
After all the heat and humidity of the previous week, the fresher feel of this period will come as a welcome respite to many.
Pressure is expected to remain relatively high across at least the southern half of the UK for much of the week, with Atlantic lows skirting past the northwest. This set up will most likely result in some breezy, showery and cooler weather across Northern Ireland and western parts of Scotland. That said, even in these areas, some fine weather can expected from time to time.
The influence of the high pressure to the south will result in a good deal of dry and warm weather for much of England and Wales. The orientation of the high will be somewhat different to the previous week though, drawing much fresher air in from the eastern Atlantic, rather than the hot and humid air from France and Spain as in the previous period.
It should be noted though that some forecast models suggest that winds may occasionally and temporarily become southeasterly across southeast and eastern England later in the period. In the event that this situation does materialize, there could be some further bouts of hot weather with attendant thunderstorms for the southeast corner of England at times as hot and humid air is drawn in from nearby northern France.
Monday 13 July—Sunday 26 July
Pressure building towards the end of the month
As is usually the case, confidence in the details of the longer range forecast taper off with time. However, at time of writing, there is a reasonable degree of consensus between the different computer model forecasts that pressure will become relatively high across the UK as we move towards the end of July.
In this scenario, we would usually expect a fair amount of dry weather, and during July, high pressure also usually brings at least the prospect of some warm days. Should such a high develop, its orientation and the subsequent wind direction that it develops will have a very direct impact on temperature at a local scale, so accurately pinpointing the warmest regions of the UK in such a scenario is not possible at this time.
Of course, we will keep you updated with any important developments here at the BBC Weather Centre.
Will August start on a warm note? Find out next week...
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 6 July
Friday 3 July Published at 03:41
Dry and very warm today. Some heavy, thundery rain overnight.
A fresher start than on previous days, but dry with plenty of sunshine. It'll turn increasingly warm and humid later, or hot towards the southeast. Cloud will gradually build from the southwest, with isolated showers possible late in the day.
Dry to start across the north, with patchy low cloud and fog along some eastern coasts. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will soon move northeastwards overnight. Drier conditions follow.
Breezy and cooler across Scotland, with heavy rain gradually easing and clearing north. Largely dry elsewhere with warm sunny spells developing. Very warm again in the southeast.
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday
Increasingly breezy Sunday, with scattered showers and some warm sunny spells. Drier to start Monday, but cloudier, with rain in the west later. Rain clearing to sunshine and showers Tuesday.