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Friday 9 October Published at 00:15
Issued by the Met Office
Friday 9 October
There are no weather warnings in force anywhere in the United Kingdom.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 5 October Published at 10:00
The two sides of autumn
September finished on a quiet note weather-wise, high pressure dominating our weather and we saw typical autumnal conditions. There were cold early mornings with fog patches, these clearing to leave fine and warm afternoons. This was typified on the last day of the month with Braemar in Aberdeenshire starting the day with a temperature of -1.3 Celsius. This was the lowest temperature recorded anywhere in the UK in September. Braemar then went on to record a top temperature of 24 Celsius which was the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the UK in September. What a day of contrast!
The first few days of October continued in a similar vein, but over the next few days we see the other side of autumn. There will be cloudy skies with outbreaks of rain, much milder nights and the strengthening winds will start to bring down the leaves from the trees
Monday 5 October—Sunday 11 October
A week of two halves
During Monday and Tuesday the change to more unsettled conditions will become complete. Outbreaks of rain will continue to extend northwards across the country. The rain will become heavy at times and will be accompanied by quite strong and gusty southerly winds. The heaviest rain will be over parts of Northeast Scotland on Tuesday and into Wednesday.
One of the more noticeable features during this period will be very mild nights. Having seen temperatures down to 2 or 3 Celsius in rural spots over the weekend, minimum temperatures could be 10 degrees higher during the first half of this week.
There will be further rain on Wednesday, some of it on the heavy side with the heaviest rain becoming confined to northeast Scotland by the end of the day. The rain is expected to move away on Thursday allowing a ridge of high pressure to build, bringing a return to dry and settled weather with lighter winds for much of the country which looks set to continue in the east into the weekend. This will also bring a return to cold nights with some pockets of frost, and patchy fog. The fog dispersing to leave pleasantly warm afternoons.
Then towards the end of the week a deep area of low pressure, otherwise known as ex-hurricane Joaquin, will approach western Ireland and will bring a risk of gales in western areas over the weekend.
Monday 12 October—Wednesday 28 October
Battle between high and low pressure
Our weather will be finely balanced as we head towards the middle of October. A large area of high pressure over Scandinavia will try to prevent rain bearing weather systems from moving across the British Isles from the Atlantic.
At this stage it looks as though some rain will makes is way across the country during the early part of the week, gradually fizzling out. High pressure then looks set to extend its influence across the country bringing a lot of dry weather with clouds breaking to give some sunshine. A main feature of weather during the week will be a strengthening easterly wind introducing cooler conditions.
Monday 19 October—Sunday 1 November
Will the high deliver a knockout blow?
The last ten days of October look set to be characterised by high pressure still acting as a block and trying to prevent Atlantic weather systems from bringing much in the way of wet and windy weather across the country. It does look as though more northern and eastern parts of the UK will have a lot of dry weather and it will also be cooler with temperatures a little below normal by day and frosts in many places at nights. The south and west will have more chance of seeing outbreaks of rain and some computer models suggest that rain will cross other parts of the country at times, particularly towards the end of the month.
As we head towards bonfire night, will the weather produce any fireworks?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 12 October
Friday 9 October Published at 02:38
Cloudy with showers in the northwest. Dry and bright elsewhere.
Northern Ireland, much of Scotland, and parts of northern England will be rather cloudy with occasional showers, and more persistent rain in the far northwest. Elsewhere, after a chilly start, fog will slowly clear, leaving plenty of sunny spells.
Away from the far northwest and Northern Ireland where it'll remain cloudy with some patchy rain it will be a dry, largely clear night with mist or fog patches forming.
The far northwest will remain fairly cloudy with further showers or longer spells of light rain. Elsewhere, apart from the odd shower it'll be mostly dry with some sunny spells.
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday
Mostly dry with patchy cloud and sunny spells, but breezy and feeling cooler. Occasional rain across northern parts on Sunday clearing Monday, with showers expected in the east on Tuesday.