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Monday 8 February Published at 05:13
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for southwest Scotland
Issued at:0958 on Sat 6 Feb 2016
Valid from:0600 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
to :0800 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
Showers or longer spells of rain will affect much of southern and western Scotland during Sunday and into Sunday night. The rain will be accompanied by gale force west to southwesterly winds, especially during Sunday afternoon, with gusts of 45-55 mph quite widely, perhaps 60-65 mph over exposed coasts and bridges. Please be aware of some difficult driving conditions due to standing water and spray, and localised surface water flooding.
YELLOW WARNING of ICE for northern Scotland
Issued at:0924 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
Valid from:2100 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
to 0900 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
Icy stretches are expected to form on untreated surfaces later on Sunday evening and overnight into Monday morning. In addition, scattered wintry showers may give slight snowfalls on higher ground in the west of the area. Please be aware of these wintry hazards and the potential for some difficult driving conditions overnight and into the Monday morning rush hour.
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for parts of south and west Wales and parts of southwest England
Updated at:1015 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
Valid from:1500 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
Valid to:1800 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
Rain will move quickly eastwards on Sunday afternoon and evening, followed by frequent showers overnight and through Monday. The showers are likely to be heavy at times and accompanied by hail and thunder, with very strong and gusty winds. Be aware of the potential for localised surface water flooding.
AMBER WARNING of WIND for southwest and southern England and south Wales.
Updated at:1036 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
Valid from:0300 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
Valid to:1800 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
An area of very strong winds is likely to extend east across southwest England and parts of central southern England on Monday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely widely, with 80 mph gusts in exposed coastal areas, particularly Cornwall and North Devon, and also through the Bristol Channel. Some very large waves are also likely to affect many coasts, in particular north coasts of Cornwall and Devon.
Winds should gradually ease through the afternoon and evening.
Please be prepared for disruption to travel as well as possible damage to trees and structures, and interruption of power supplies.
This is an update to the warning to extend the amber area to cover more of the Bristol Channel, including Cardiff and Bristol, and also English Channel coasts of Sussex and Kent.
YELLOW WARNING of WIND for southwest England, south Wales and southern England.
Updated at 1026 on Sun 7 Feb 2016
Valid from:0300 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
Valid to:1800 on Mon 8 Feb 2016
An area of very strong winds are expected to extend east across much of southern England and parts of south Wales on Monday morning. Gusts of 60-70 mph are likely quite widely, with 80 mph gusts likely in exposed coastal areas, particularly Cornwall. Some very large waves are also likely to affect many coasts, in particular the north coasts of Cornwall and Devon. Winds should gradually ease through the afternoon and evening.
Please be aware of the potential for disruption to travel as well as possible damage to trees and structures and interruption of power supplies.
This is an update to the warning to extend the yellow area a little further north across south Wales and southern England.
This is a further update to extend the warning to cover most other counties of southern England.
Updated at 00:15 on 8th Feb 2016
There are flood warnings in force in the following regions:
Further updates will appear here.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 1 February Published at 10:00
Stormy start. Will the disturbed weather end?
Following the exceptionally mild and wet December, January has drawn to a close with temperatures averaging out just a little above normal. Although north-west Scotland has had a dry month, parts of eastern Scotland and north-east England have had more than twice their normal January rainfall.
February will start off with the eighth named storm of the winter, Henry, giving further severe gales, but as the month goes on the wet and windy weather which has characterised the winter so far is expected to become less frequent, with some lengthier drier and cooler spells anticipated.
Monday 1 February—Sunday 7 February
Storm Henry followed by cooler, showery weather
The week begins with weather warnings in force for potentially disruptive gales over Scotland later on Monday and into Tuesday, as storm Henry passes close to northern Scotland. The whole country will have a very windy couple of days, with gales in many areas, but central and northern Scotland, apart from Shetland, will suffer the strongest and most damaging gusts - up to 90 mph in places. Monday will start mild and cloudy in the south but it will turn cooler with showers during the day. Tuesday and Wednesday will be rather cold, showery days, with the winds gradually easing. Showers will be most frequent over Northern Ireland and Scotland, where the showers will fall as snow on hills, while England and Wales will have the best of the sunny intervals.
There will be a change back to milder, rather windy weather with rain at times on Thursday and at first on Friday, before there is a change back to cooler, brighter weather but with showers in the north and west.
For the weekend, many places are expected to keep showery, windy weather with some sunshine and daytime temperatures a little on the cold side. There's a moderate risk that a new area of low pressure will form over the Atlantic, bringing a return to heavier rain and gales - with southern England and Wales more likely to be in the firing line for this development.
Monday 8 February—Sunday 14 February
Often bright and breezy but cool
The second week of February will start off with a showery type of weather established across the British Isles, with quite strong west or northwesterly winds bringing showers and clear or sunny intervals. With this wind regime, Scotland, Northern Ireland and western parts of Wales and northern England will see most frequent showers - these falling as snow on higher hills. Around midweek the showers are expected to die out, leaving a chilly but drier day or two with night frosts. For the end of the week, further areas of cloud, rain and strong winds are expected to approach the UK from the Atlantic. The track of the low pressure systems bringing this change is uncertain: most likely they will bring milder weather for a time, but if their track is more southerly the weather will remain chilly with an increased chance of the rain turning to snow on higher ground at least.
Monday 15 February—Sunday 28 February
No strong signal for wintry weather
So far, in broad terms, this winter has behaved much as expected. Strong El Niños in the Pacific, such as the ongoing event, are often associated with the unsettled and predominantly mild conditions over the UK and northwest Europe which have persisted through December and January. By late winter, changes in the pressure pattern over the north Pacific can lead to changes in the jet stream further round the northern hemisphere.
The implication for late February weather is that mild, wet and windy spells of weather are expected to become more sporadic and short-lived, while the intervening periods of drier, brighter and cooler weather with some night frosts will last longer. There is, as yet, no signal for any major change in the weather patterns which would lead to more severe wintry weather.
As February progresses, there will be greater confidence in the shape of late winter weather patterns over the UK. Lowland areas of England and Wales have seen little snow again this winter - is there much chance of a late frosty spell with some snow?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 8 February
Monday 8 February Published at 02:35
Severe gales in the south with squally showers. Calmer elsewhere.
Severe gales in southern areas with gusts of 60-70mph, possibly 80mph over exposed coasts, but these easing later in the day. Rather cloudy with frequent squally showers in the south. Drier, less windy with sunny spells further north.
Gales easing in the south, but remaining windy. Further showery rain in southern and central areas. Drier and clearer with light winds in the north, a patchy frost in Scotland.
Winds easing but some local gales still likely in the south. Showery rain moving south, wintry over high ground, especially in the north. A colder day for all parts.
Outlook for Wednesday to Friday
Cold, easing winds and mainly dry on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered wintry showers and overnight frosts. Stronger winds with further rain in the south on Friday.