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Saturday 20 September Published at 08:44
Issued by the Met Office
Saturday 20th September 2014
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN
This warning is in force for parts of southern Britain.
Further heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through Saturday and into Saturday evening, with the main risk becoming confined to southern parts of the warning area from late afternoon.
The public should be aware of the potential for isolated disruption due to surface water flooding and lightning strikes.
This is an update to the warning issued on Friday.
Valid until 2100 Saturday.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Alerts.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Alerts will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Alert of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Alert is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 15 September Published at 10:00
Feeling more like summer!
September so far has been warm and dry, quite a contrast to August which was the coldest since 1993 and the wettest since 2004. That did skew our summer's statistics away from the overall warm and dry theme characterised by June and July, so some may think it quite considerate of September doing August's work. Meteorologically speaking however we're into autumn now and the nights are getting longer and cooler, as we saw last week; the warm afternoons have followed cool and at times misty mornings.
So where might this week take us? Well, perhaps even closer to summer than we've already been enjoying. The reason for the settled weather is a blocking anticyclone which has been sitting over the UK and keeping Atlantic weather fronts at bay. In the last few days it's slipped over to Scandinavia, but continues to dominate our weather and will introduce a continental southeasterly flow across the country. This means temperatures could rise by more than five degrees above average where the sun shines. As we're only in September it's too early to call it an Indian one, but how long will this extension to summer last?
Monday 15 September—Sunday 21 September
Temperatures on the rise
Despite this week's overall dry theme for the UK, rain greeted central and eastern parts on Monday morning. This will become increasingly confined to eastern Scotland through today. Otherwise it's mainly fine with sunny spells, but some showers will possible in central and eastern areas. For the rest of the week it will be dry with sunny spells for most, and thanks to that southeasterly flow it will become very warm by Thursday in parts of the south and west. Areas of cloud are expected to continue affecting northeastern parts of the country at times, with some occasional spots of rain or drizzle. There is a chance of some showers in the southwest at times, but these will be isolated, and the fine weather should persist through the weekend.
Monday 22 September—Sunday 28 September
The anticyclone's dominance diminishes
Areas of high pressure are known for being stubborn and difficult to shift. Sometimes weather forecast models can be too quick to move on these blocking highs, so such situations can be characterised by noticeable disagreement between different computer models. The presence of a tropical weather system, Edouard, in the Atlantic this week is also likely to add uncertainty into next week's forecast, even though most weather models seem to suggest currently that it will remain in the Atlantic and be steered towards the Azores. All this considered it seems likely at the time of writing that the settled, anticyclonic weather will continue into the first part of next week. It may turn windy and more changeable in the northwest towards the end of next week, with an increasing risk of showers or spells of rain, but the southeast should mostly remain fine.
Monday 29 September—Sunday 12 October
Change of month, change of weather?
It seems fairly common to be writing about a change in weather type as we approach a change in month, and it seems that this forecast will not present an exception to that rule. However, having noted above the tendency for weather models to trend towards a more Atlantic-influenced weather pattern rather more soon than a blocking area of high pressure would wish to allow, confidence is lower for such a change. Nevertheless, model consensus favours somewhat changeable conditions for the end of September and early October, with settled weather interspersed with occasional unsettled spells. The drier periods with some warm sunshine are expected to be most prolonged across the south and east, whilst outbreaks of rain may tend to be most frequent across the north and west. During the more settled conditions daytime temperatures are likely to be around and often above average, although chilly overnight with a risk of fog patches. During any unsettled spells daytime temperatures are likely to be below or close to average.
Will we see a genuine Indian summer?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 22 September
Saturday 20 September Published at 04:36
Thundery showers, becoming confined to east. Turning fresher from northwest.
Isolated thundery showers will continue across England, before becoming confined to the east by midday. Elsewhere, a dull start will be followed by a cloudy day with occasional rain or drizzle. However northwestern areas will turn brighter and fresher later.
Dry across the north, with clearing skies leading to a cold night. Milder but also cloudy elsewhere, with isolated rain. However fresher and clearer conditions will spread south by dawn.
A fine day with plenty of sunshine, although rather cloudy at first in the far south. Chilly at first, but feeling warm by the afternoon across southern parts. Light winds.
Outlook for Monday to Wednesday
Fine and often sunny across the south and east. However cloudier with rain at times across northern and western parts. Light winds, but turning windy in the northwest by Wednesday.