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Friday 26 May Published at 18:49
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for NORTHERN IRELAND, CENTRAL, SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHERN ENGLAND, THE MIDLANDS and parts of NORTH WALES
Valid from 13:00 on Sat 27 May
Valid until 23:00 on Sat 27 May
Heavy, thundery showers on Saturday afternoon and evening have the potential to bring localised flooding, hail and frequent lightning.
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for NORTHWEST SCOTLAND
Valid from 13:00 on Sat 27 May
Valid until 03:00 on Sun 28 May
Rain will become persistent and heavy at times on Saturday afternoon and evening. Some torrential thundery outbreaks are likely in places, leading to some localised flooding, especially on the roads where some travel disruption may occur.
YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for SOUTHEASTERN WALES and SOUTHERN ENGLAND
Valid from 12:00 on Sun 28 May
Valid until 12:00 on Mon 29 May
Another band of heavy rain is likely to spread northward through Sunday into Monday, with some locally torrential downpours and thunder possible. There are early indications that this could result in some disruption, with sudden flooding of roads, transport routes, homes and businesses possible. Please monitor forecasts through this weekend.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.
The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.
For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 22 May Published at 10:00
Warming up, but for how long?
After several weeks of very dry weather for many parts of the UK, last week finally brought some persistent rainfall. Some southeastern parts of England and eastern areas of Scotland had recorded just a few millimetres of rain in well over a month. But active frontal systems and troughs brought accumulations of a good 50 to 70 millimetres (around 2 to 3 inches) of rain in just a few days.
In contrast, we also saw the highest temperature of the year so far recorded at Gravesend in Kent on Tuesday, with a maximum temperature of 25.8 Celsius.
This week, with high pressure dominating UK weather conditions, warm air moving across the UK from the south will mean that temperatures reach the low to mid twenties across much of the UK, and by the end of the week we're likely to see highs reaching the high twenties across southeastern parts, so most of us will see an early taste of summer! Just how long the warm spell lasts remains rather uncertain though as we move through the Bank Holiday weekend and on into early June.
Read on to find out the details ...
Monday 22 May—Sunday 28 May
An early taste of summer!
The week will begin on a rather cloudy note across Northern Ireland and Scotland, as a weak Atlantic weather front moves north and east across the respective countries, bringing some rain at times through Monday. Elsewhere though, a bright day is in store with some good spells of sunshine allowing temperatures to climb into the low twenties, with a high of around 25 Celsius likely across parts of southeast England.
Overnight into Tuesday, skies will be largely clear, allowing a few patches of fog to form in rural locations. Tuesday will bring another (albeit weaker) weather front to some northwestern areas of the UK through the day, and some cloudier skies to western and southwestern coastal areas at times, but conditions further east will again be warm and bright for much of the time.
By midweek, an anticyclone will be centred right over the UK, ensuring that the majority of the UK see plenty of dry and bright weather, and it will feel very warm in any afternoon sunshine. The possible exception will be some western coastal parts that will be a little cloudier at times. Thursday and Friday will likely be the warmest days of the week, with temperatures reaching the highest values since the warm spell of last September. Highs into the high twenties of Celsius are probable across central and eastern parts.
As we move into the Bank Holiday weekend, considerable uncertainty starts to creep into the forecast. At time of writing, the main computer forecasting models were struggling to reach a consensus on the behaviour of an Atlantic low that is likely to slowly drift in from the southwest to bring showers at times and also a transition to less warm conditions. The speed at which this transition occurs remains in doubt, but it does look as if weather conditions through the weekend will gradually tend to become more unsettled. Watch this space!
Monday 29 May—Sunday 4 June
Not so flaming June.
The uncertainty in the forecast for the Bank Holiday weekend does spill over into the last few days of May. That said, the latest estimates using the array of forecasting tools and models at our disposal suggest that although the Bank Holiday week will likely begin on a warm note, the aforementioned Atlantic low will eventually clear away to the east, leaving much of the UK in a showery regime, with a generally fresher feeling westerly wind. To that effect, it is looking likely that the first few days of June (and the climatological summer) will begin on a fairly unsettled note, with northwestern areas experiencing the wettest and windiest conditions. Conversely though, southeastern areas will likely be drier for longer periods, with generally less showers.
Monday 5 June—Sunday 18 June
Turning a little warmer and drier again?
As we move into he middle part of June, there is still a relatively large degree of uncertainty in the forecast detail, even for a longer range forecast. However, the latest available information does suggest that the jet stream will begin to realign to allow pressure to build in the vicinity of the UK again. Such a scenario would permit a good deal of dry weather, and temperatures at around average or just above for the time of year.
Looking further ahead into June, are there any signs of lengthy warm spells on the horizon? Find out next week ...
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 29 May
Friday 26 May Published at 15:33
Scattered thunderstorms for tonight and tomorrow.
This Evening and Tonight
After a warm sunny evening, most places will have another mild and rather muggy night. It will remain dry for many, but heavy and thundery showers will move across southwest England, south Wales and Northern Ireland.
Saturday will be hot again in the east but the heavy, thundery showers will move further north-eastwards, leaving further sunny and warm weather in the south and west.
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday
Sunday will be fresher, mostly dry and sunny. Heavy thundery rain in the south later will slowly clear on Monday. Rain will move eastwards on Tuesday, drier in the east.