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Saturday 27 August Published at 00:06
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN for much of Wales, central southern England.
Issued at 10:37 on Friday 26 August
Valid from 11:00 on Saturday 27 August to 0900 on Sunday 28 August
Thundery showers are likely to move northwards into some southern parts of England during Saturday morning, becoming more widespread and heavy over central UK through the course of Saturday and overnight into Sunday morning.
Please be aware of the risk of local disruption to transport and outdoor activities. In particular, be aware of the potential for some spray and standing water on roads, and the possibility of road closures.
This warning has been updated to include more of southern UK, as well as starting the warning period slightly earlier. Please monitor for further updates.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 22 August Published at 10:00
A last spell of summer heat for some parts?
Last week brought a wide variety of weather for the UK. The week began on very quiet note, with high pressure bringing chilly starts and then long sunny days of warm sunshine. As the week progressed though, an unseasonably deep area of low pressure moved in from the Atlantic to bring very wet and windy conditions across many parts of the UK, along with a distinctly cooler feel. Gales affected many parts of England and Wales through Saturday.
After a drier and less windy Sunday, this coming week offers a reversal of the last. Early in the week, We can expect a further rain-bearing system to bring some rather wet weather for many places, but as the week progresses, warm air is expected to drift in from the near continent to affect southern and central parts of the UK, along with a few thundery showers, giving a summery feel. Further north and west though, the remnants of Atlantic weather systems will likely bring a fresher feel with the threat of showers.
Beyond next week, and into the last days of the meteorological summer, it looks like the warm conditions across southern and central areas will be shunted back into the continent by westerly winds that will bring Atlantic weather systems towards our shores. The most unsettled conditions will likely be across northwestern areas, but some more prolonged dry weather may well still be in store for southern regions into the last days of summer. Read on to find out the details...
Monday 22 August—Sunday 28 August
Hot and humid in the south, fresher in the north.
Monday will get off to a damp start for much of the UK, with a particularly humid feel across southern parts of England and Wales. Through the day though, skies will brighten for Northern Ireland and also eastern parts of England and Scotland. Wales, western Scotland and western districts of England will likely stay rather cloudy and muggy though, with some further albeit patchy rain at times.
Overnight into Tuesday, warm air will start to drift in from the near continent across the southern half of the UK. Through Tuesday daytime, this warm air will prevent an Atlantic front from making any further significant progress east, as it brings rain to Northern Ireland, northern England, southern Scotland and some of the western fringes of Wales and southwest England. By contrast, parts of southeast England and the Midlands will experience some fine and warm conditions.
A similar theme will prevail on Thursday with a good deal of fine, dry but hot and humid conditions across the southeastern half of the UK, but a stalled Atlantic weather front may bring some outbreaks of rain to areas further to the northwest.
Thursday will most likely bring the onset of some thundery showers across the southern quadrant of the UK to bring a rather hot and humid feel. To the north and west, further cooler and damper conditions are expected, again in association with a waving Atlantic front that will be stalled from moving further east by the feed of warm air pushing up from France across the eastern side of the UK. Through Friday and into the weekend, at this stage it looks like an Atlantic low will gradually bring fresher and showery conditions to northwestern parts, with less warm and generally bright weather in store for south England and Wales as the hot and humid continental air recedes away to the east.
Monday 29 August—Sunday 4 September
Summer making an early exit from the northwest.
As we head into the last few days of the meteorological summer, the most likely synoptic set up is that the jet stream will be suitably positioned high in the skies across the mid-Atlantic to push a low pressure system towards the northwestern half of the UK. As a result, it is likely that Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England will experience a breezy end to the summer with outbreaks of rain at times, with temperatures around perhaps a little below where we'd normally expect them to be in late August.
Further to the south, although some showery and breezy spells can be expected at times, it is likely that the weather across Wales and the southern half of England will often be fine and dry, with some warm days at times.
Similar conditions are forecast for the first few days of the meteorological autumn.
Monday 5 September—Sunday 18 September
Fairly typical early autumn weather.
As we move into the first full week of the meteorological autumn, all the forecasting tools and techniques at our disposal point towards a fairly unsurprising meteorological set up for the time of year. At time of writing, the most likely scenario is that the jet stream will continue to push Atlantic low pressure systems towards the UK at times throughout this period, with the wettest and windiest conditions most frequent in the northwest, and the rest of any drier, brighter and warmer interludes reserved for southern parts of the UK.
Next week's issue will take us into the latter part of September. Will there be a sign of any potent autumnal Atlantic weather systems heading our way? As always, we'll be keeping a close eye on any developments in the forecast here at the BBC Weather Centre.
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 29 August
Saturday 27 August Published at 03:36
Heavy rain for some, otherwise dry with sunny breaks.
Outbreaks of rain, often heavy, will move across southern and central parts of England through the day, reaching Wales later. Otherwise it will remain generally dry with warm spells of sunshine, although Scotland may see the odd shower at times.
Rain spreading into northern parts of Wales and England will become heavy in places whilst showers persist across northern Scotland. Another muggy night in the south with some showers.
After a cloudy and wet start for some, rain will gradually ease to leave a mixture of sunny spells and showers for most, these heaviest in central and southern England.
Outlook for Monday to Wednesday
An improvement on Monday as showers fade, leaving sunny breaks. Mainly dry on Tuesday before rain spreads into the north and west on Wednesday, but staying fine and dry elsewhere.