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Warnings

Friday 19 December Published at 11:56

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF SNOW AND ICE for north and northeast Scotland

Updated 19 December at 10:55

Valid from 1100 on Fri 19 December to 0900 on Sat 20 December

Sleet and snow showers are expected to continue throughout Friday and early Saturday, giving lying snow in places.

This will be chiefly on higher ground above 200m, where 2-4cm may accumulate, whilst areas above 400m may see 5-10cm.

Some drifting of the lying snow will occur in the strong winds, while icy stretches affect untreated surfaces.

The public should be aware of possible hazardous driving conditions.

This is an update to the warning issued on Thursday, to pull the warning area a little further east across Aberdeenshire and Angus.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF RAIN for west and southwest Scotland

Updated 19 December at 11:25

Valid from 0300 on Sun 21 December to 1500 on Mon 22 December

Outbreaks of rain reaching northwest Scotland in the early hours of Sunday will spread southeast across the country during the day.

The rain will become persistent and often heavy across western areas, and as much milder air arrives, lying snow in upland areas will thaw.

The heaviest rain looks like becoming more confined to southwest Scotland later on Sunday before potentially moving north again on Monday morning, finally clearing on Monday afternoon.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding, particularly on the road network, where there will be a lot of surface water and spray.

YELLOW EARLY WARNING OF WIND for southeast Scotland and northeast England

Updated 19 December at 11:50

Valid from 0600 on Sun 21 December to 1800 on Mon 22 December

Gales are expected to affect parts of southeast Scotland and northeast England at times during Sunday and Monday. Gusts between 55-65mph seem likely over and to the east of hills in the warning area.

The public should be aware of the possibility of minor disruption, in particular to road travel.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

FLOOD WARNINGS

Updated 19 December at 11:09

There are flood warnings in force in the following regions:

NORTHEAST ENGLAND (2)

WALES (1)

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.

Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.

A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline - 0345 988 1188

Monthly Outlook

Monday 15 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary
Dreaming of a white Christmas?

December so far has seen quite a changeable pattern of weather. There have been some chilly nights when the skies have cleared and the winds fallen light but also some wild and windy days, with low pressure systems rapidly deepening over the Atlantic before bringing gales and some exceptionally high seas to more northern parts of the country. There has been some snow too, mainly but not exclusively over hills in the north of the country.

All of this is standard fare for December and the snow we have seen is nothing out of the ordinary. However, it's approaching the time of year where many people only care about one thing - a white Christmas.

At the time of writing, it still looks too early to place bets on specific cities seeing a white Christmas, since the current changeable pattern, with day-by-day swings in temperature and weather, seems set to continue into the New Year.

So, with the usual health warning to stay tuned for updates as the big day nears, it currently looks possible for some snowflakes to fall somewhere on Christmas Day. Without wishing to be a Christmas Grinch however, widespread falling or lying snow (the sort needed for sledging) looks unlikely for much of the country, especially away from hills in the north.

Monday 15 December—Sunday 21 December
Cold start and end, mild middle

Monday starts cold and windy in the far north and northwest of the UK, with further showers, some wintry over the hills. In the southwest, cloud and outbreaks of rain will ease away by dusk. Much of the rest of the country will be dry with sunny periods.

Following a mostly cold and crisp start to Tuesday, milder air with rain and strong winds will spread into western areas, spreading eastwards through the rest of the day before clearing Wednesday morning. On Thursday, outbreaks of rain return to central and southern parts, but in the north it will be colder again with sunshine and showers, these perhaps wintry in the far north.

The colder, showery weather extends to the rest of the country on Friday and for much of the weekend, with the heaviest and most frequent showers in the north and northwest, driven by gales or severe gales in exposure. The more sheltered southern and eastern parts of the UK will remain mainly dry with the best of the sunshine found here.

Monday 22 December—Sunday 28 December
Rinse and repeat

The showers may be more persistent at times in the north through Sunday and into Monday, with the rain possibly heavy at times in the northwest, especially over windward hills. Temperatures are expected to be generally above normal over most parts at the start of Christmas week, although feeling colder in the wind and any heavier rain. During Tuesday, the rain is currently expected to move gradually southeastward across the UK, with showery conditions returning into northwestern parts later in the day. Temperatures will return closer to normal in the wake of the clearing band of rain.

This changeable weather is presently expected to continue through the Christmas period, bringing a mixture of wetter and milder days along with some colder and showery interludes. By night, in those colder interludes, frosts are likely. As for snow? Well, if the timing is right and a colder interlude coincides with Christmas Day, then it may be possible that somewhere in the country sees some snowflakes falling - the chances currently look highest for hills in the north.

Monday 29 December—Sunday 18 January
New year, new weather script?

The end of December is likely to stay changeable and often windy with weather systems arriving from the west or northwest. The more unsettled conditions are likely to be in the north and west, with the best of the sunshine in the south and east. It may continue to be mild one day, then colder the next, but temperatures are expected to average out to be around or just below normal for the timne of year. The continuation of this variable pattern is the most likely and preferred scenario for our weather throughout the period until mid-January, however there are some signs of potential for a slightly more settled and colder spell to develop from early January.

Next week

Will the colder, more settled scenario win out?

Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 22 December

Summary

Friday 19 December Published at 03:37

Summary

Wintry showers in the north. Plenty of sunshine elsewhere.
Today

Rain in the south soon clearing this morning. Blustery showers in the north, often heavy and locally wintry. A few showers for other western areas too. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine but feeling colder for all with a brisk northwesterly wind.

Tonight

Remaining windy with further wintry showers in the north. Largely dry for central and southern areas with lengthy clear spells, though the strength of the wind preventing a widespread frost.

Saturday

Blustery, wintry showers in the north gradually easing through the day. The strong northwesterly wind easing a little too. Otherwise largely dry with more winter sunshine, but feeling cold.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday

Turning milder again, but largely cloudy with outbreaks of rain or drizzle at times. Colder and clearer conditions in the far north then spread southwards through Tuesday and Tuesday night.

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UK Forecast Last updated 07:45, Friday 19 Dec