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Tuesday 19 September Published at 03:13
Issued by the Met Office
Tuesday 19 September
There are no weather warnings in force anywhere in the United Kingdom.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.
The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.
For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 18 September Published at 10:00
Lively week of weather at home and away
Our weather had a distinctly autumnal feel this past week, in stark contrast to the same week last year. We had our warmest day of 2016 on the 13th of September when Gravesend in Kent reached 34.4 Celsius. On the same day this year we struggled to reach 19.6 Celsius at Manston in Kent with the rest of the country much cooler.
We also saw our first named storm of the season on Tuesday when Storm Aileen brought severe gales across the central swathe of the British Isles.
We cannot talk about named storms over past week without a mention of Hurricane Irma.
Irma was the second strongest ever Atlantic hurricane with sustained winds of 185mph and gusts of over 200mph. For three days it was at the highest hurricane level, category five; the longest period of time for any Atlantic hurricane. It followed Hurricane Harvey as being the first year we have seen two category four hurricanes make landfall in continental USA since hurricanes were first recorded back in 1851.
And now back to a much quieter period of weather coming up for the British Isles.
Monday 18 September—Sunday 24 September
Weather starting to settle down
We will see the first signs of something more settled during the first half of this week. A ridge of high pressure will continue to edge in from the west during Monday and Tuesday and bring a lot of dry and bright weather with sunny spells. There will still be some showers running down the east coast of Scotland and England with scattered showers developing inland on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Still quite cold at nights too and daytime temperatures also a little below normal.
Towards the middle part of the week, we lose the cold northerly winds and instead begin to pick up a milder southwesterly breeze. This will be one of the main changes during the week as night times become much milder and temperature during the days also a few degrees higher.
The drier, warmer weather will continue in the east on Wednesday and into Thursday but western areas will see some wet and windy weather. The rain will edge eastwards to many places later on Thursday. Over next weekend, south and eastern areas will be mostly dry with sunny spells. Northwestern areas will be cloudier and breezy for time with a little rain.
Monday 25 September—Sunday 1 October
September to end on a high
The last week of September is looking more promising with the possibility of high pressure dominating our weather. There is still some uncertainty due to active storms in the tropical Atlantic and the remnants of some of them will move northwards into the mid latitudes. This can quite often have a beneficial effect on our weather by helping to reinforce high pressure close to the British Isles. So the weather looks set to be mostly dry with some sunshine but perhaps occasional rain and stronger winds at times towards the northwest. However, high pressure at this time of year does bring its own set of problems. The combination of clear skies and light winds will lead to quite cold nights. Also there is likely to be some overnight mist and fog patches. As the strength of the sun becomes less, it will take longer after sunrise for the fog patches to disperse and some areas could well see some fog lingering till the middle part of the morning. However, as daytime temperatures will be on the warm side and with light winds, ingredients are there for some fine late September days.
Monday 2 October—Sunday 15 October
How long will the settled weather last?
As we move into October and the second month of the meteorological autumn, we look set to start off on a fairly settled note. At this stage, high pressure is still expected to be close to the British Isles maintaining a lot of dry and quite warm weather. There are indications that weather fronts bringing rain and strengthening winds will begin to edge into more north and western parts of the British Isles, with the driest, brightest and warmest weather becoming confined to more southern and eastern areas.
Will the second half of October turn cold and wintry or wet and windy?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 25 September
Tuesday 19 September Published at 03:44
A mostly pleasant and settled day.
A chilly morning with some patchy mist and fog and the odd coastal shower. Mist, fog and showers will clear to leave a dry day with plenty of sunny spells. With light winds it will feel pleasant in the sunshine.
A mostly dry night across the UK, although some cloud and rain pushing into Northern Ireland and western Scotland and the odd light shower in the southwest.
Cloud and rain, at times heavy, in northwestern parts, along with some locally strong winds for western coasts and hills. Dry with sunny spells in the southeast.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday
Rain clearing eastward through Thursday. Mostly dry and sunny on Friday but rain arriving in the northwest, and then west later. Dry and fine on Saturday, cloudier in the north.