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Warnings

Monday 27 February Published at 15:54

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING OF ICE for many western, central and northern areas

Issued at: 15:44 on Mon 27 Feb 2017

Valid from: 18:00 on 27 February to 10:00 on 28 February

Ice is expected to form overnight leading to difficult driving conditions on untreated roads and slippery conditions on pavements.

The warning has been updated to extend the area further north on the eastern side of Scotland, allowing for snow in showers to fall to lower levels locally in heavier showers and to bring the start time forward by two hours.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

FLOOD WARNINGS

Updated 11:28 on 27 February

There is a flood warning in force in the following region:

CUMBRIA (1)

Further updates will appear here.

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

The Met Office warns the public and emergency responders of severe or hazardous weather which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption through the National Severe Weather Warning Service.

The Met Office issues warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. These warnings are given a colour depending on a combination of the likelihood of the event happening and the impact the conditions may have.

For more information, see the Met Office Weather Warnings Guide.

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline - 0345 988 1188

Monthly Outlook

Monday 27 February Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary
Spring arrives

In stark contrast to the prevailing dry and settled theme of the majority of winter 2016/2017, the last full week of the climatological winter brought dangerous Storm Doris across the shores of the UK, which had some locally devastating impacts. Winds widely gusted to 60 to 70 mph, and even higher in some exposed locations, in addition to some heavy rain for many areas.

As we look ahead into first few days of Spring, although perhaps not as intense, the weather still has the potential to be eventful, with some heavy showers and blustery winds anticipated at times this coming week. Indeed, the unsettled theme looks likely to continue into the middle of March, although there will doubtless be quieter interludes at times, and perhaps a colder spell towards the end of the month.

Read on to find out the details ...

Monday 27 February—Sunday 5 March
Chilly and showery at first, a touch milder later

The week will get off to a chilly start, as a slow moving area of low pressure and its associated cold air drifts in from the northwest. Heavy and often thundery showers will affect most parts of the UK through Monday, although some good spells of sunshine can be expected in between such showers. The showers will turn wintry at times, even to low levels, and particularly across the northern half of the UK, where there could even be some settling of snow on higher ground. Frost will be particularly prevalent overnight into Tuesday, along with some patchy ice.

Tuesday will be a similarly showery day, but although the showers will be just as wintry, they are unlikely to be as heavy.

Through the midweek period, conditions will settle down across the north of the UK, but it will remain cold. Further south, weather fronts are expected to cross from the west at times, with a slightly milder feel developing.

Through Friday and into Saturday, another Atlantic weather system is expected to move up from the south, introducing the possibility of a spell of heavy rain to many areas for a time. Any rain on Friday and into Saturday could also briefly turn to snow over higher ground in the north. An unsettled theme is expected to continue through Sunday across most parts.

Monday 6 March—Sunday 12 March
Still changeable but changes happening more slowly

With low pressure still anticipated to be centred just to the west of the UK, it is likely that the first full week of March will start on an unsettled note, with bands of rain moving up from the south or southwest at times. Any wet spells will be followed by drier interludes and a few showers. It is likely that the northern half of the UK will be colder than the March average for much of the time, so some periods of (chiefly hill and higher ground) snowfall are possible, both from rain bands and any following showers. Milder conditions are expected across the south. The colder regions of the UK are likely to experience some overnight frosts, with patchy fog also possible at times.

As we progress through this period, it is possible that although the changeable theme will remain, the changes in weather will tend to be slower, with lengthier dry spells in between weather systems.

Confidence in this forecast scenario is reasonable. However, some computer model solutions do hint at the possibility of an extensive anticyclone centred broadly to the north of the UK drifting close to or over northern and eastern areas of the UK. Should the high move in this fashion, a cold east to southeasterly flow will develop across all parts of the UK, resulting in widespread cold, settled conditions with overnight frosts, bright days and the possibility of coastal showers in the east.

Monday 13 March—Sunday 26 March
A chilly end to March?

Moving into the second half of March, the suite of different of computer models that we utilise to produce the longer range forecast are offering an unusually broad range of different forecast solutions. This broad range does not inspire particular confidence in any given individual forecast solution. That said, the solutions can be broadly grouped into two categories; those that allow the continuation of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK to bring a succession of wet and windy spells followed by drier interludes, and those where an anticyclone centred over Scandinavia brings colder, drier weather to our shores from the east. At time of writing, the former scenario is slightly favoured, but there are increasing signs that as we move towards the end of March, a colder, drier and more settled theme could well begin to develop. As always we will continue to monitor trends in the forecast model and keep you updated.

Next week

If high pressure does set in across the UK towards the end of March, a typically showery start to this coming April will not happen. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest thinking on April's weather, and all other weather matters, by staying in touch with the BBC Weather Centre.

Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 6 March

Summary

Monday 27 February Published at 15:34

Summary

Cold tonight with wintry showers continuing.
This Evening and Tonight

Showers will continue for many overnight, with sleet and snow over higher ground and to lower levels at times. It will be much colder than recent nights, with a widespread frost and a risk of ice forming on untreated surfaces.

Tuesday

Staying unsettled, with showers possible throughout the day, sometimes merging into longer spells of rain and becoming wintry over higher ground. Very windy at times, particularly near western coasts.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday

Mainly bright in the north with showers, occasionally wintry. Bands of rain and strong winds moving east across central and southern areas, interspersed with some brighter, drier spells.

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Last updated 23:29 GMT, Monday 27 Feb