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Tuesday 25 October Published at 20:45
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING OF FOG FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND
Issued at: 20:19 on Tue 25 Oct 2016
22:20 on Tue 25 Oct 2016
10:00 on Wed 26 Oct 2016
Extensive fog forming across parts of southern England may be dense in places. Please be aware that this could lead to tricky travelling conditions.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 24 October Published at 10:00
Brrrrrr it's been chilly this week.
It has been another week of weather where easterly winds have dominated. This has meant there has been a lid on daytime temperatures and overnight temperatures have fallen low enough to have seen overnight frost and some stubborn fog patches in the morning. This weather scenario is about to change as the Atlantic has a greater influence over our weather.
Monday 24 October—Sunday 30 October
Goodbye to cold mornings... well for some of us!
Monday morning starts off on a chilly note but not quite as chilly as recently. South Wales and southern England will have a fairly cloudy and grey day with patchy rain and drizzle. Sunny spells and scattered showers will continue to push into northeastern parts of England and easternmost Scotland. The rest of the UK will be dry with sunny spells.
By Tuesday morning we will see quite a contrast in temperature between north and south. Northernmost England, Scotland and Northern Ireland will start of quite chilly while the rest of England and Wales will start off on a relatively mild note as Atlantic air starts to influence how it the air feels.
There will be a lot of dry weather around on Tuesday but southernmost parts of the UK will be cloudy at times and the cloud may be just thick enough to produce a few spots of rain and drizzle at first but by the afternoon the bulk of the UK looks to be dry. We finally push the cold air out of the way overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday as westerly winds take over and we no longer have an easterly influence bringing a feed of cold air.
During Wednesday some patchy rain will affect northern and western parts of the UK but elsewhere it should remain largely dry but cloudy at times.
Thursday and Friday will see at times patchy light rain affect northern and western areas but a similar pattern emerges in that the rest of the UK should be largely dry with some sunshine at times.
As we head into next weekend, the Atlantic continues to affect the weather but high pressure starts to build across much of the UK but northernmost parts of the UK will see breezy conditions with some showers at times. This means that many of us will have a dry Halloween but north-western areas look likely to see some showers at times.
Monday 31 October—Sunday 6 November
What's going on in the Atlantic?
As we head into next week we are watching developments in the Pacific, the USA and the Atlantic. The computer models are broadly grouping together to give a pattern where warm air pushes northwards in the central and western Atlantic and this then allows cold air to push pushes southwards in the eastern Atlantic. On a pressure chart this will look like high pressure sitting to the southwest of the UK and low pressure lying somewhere to the northeast of the UK allowing a cold northwesterly flow to develop. By day there should be enough sunshine so that daytime temperatures will be close to average but overnight temperatures could be below average. The transition to a northwesterly shift in weather is complex and so there is still a lot to play for in how and if this happens.
Monday 7 November—Sunday 27 November
Autumn is nearly out of sight!
Pushing this far out in forecasting is always complex and a range of weather solutions will always emerge from the many global computer models that we look at.
The pattern that is emerging looks to be slow moving and high pressure is likely to be close to the UK. This indicates that we are likely to see limited changes in weather on a daily basis and it looks like overall we could see more overnight frosts and fog becoming more extensive. Frontal systems are unlikely to affect the UK while showers are likely close to coastal areas where the sea can still provide enough heating to help produce showers.
There's a lot that can happen until then and remember than we are transitioning from October to November the message is that we are not likely to see anything unusual for this time of year.
How is the start of winter shaping up? How will the colder forecast for next week evolve over the next few days as we get closer in time?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 31 October
Tuesday 25 October Published at 15:36
Wind and rain for Scotland, but drier and settled elsewhere.
This Evening and Tonight
Outbreaks of rain and strong winds will spread across Scotland, with some rain affecting Northern Ireland later. Variable cloud elsewhere, with fog in the south, and feeling milder in the north.
Blustery showers across northern Scotland with strong winds. Elsewhere staying largely dry with early fog only slowly clearing, but some bright or sunny spells by afternoon and feeling mild.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday
Staying changeable across Scotland and Northern Ireland with rain and strong winds at times. However, England and Wales will remain mostly dry and mild, with some morning fog in places.