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Warnings

Monday 22 December Published at 19:23

UK Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued by the Met Office

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for northwest and northern England.

Spells of persistent, and at times heavy, rain will affect parts of northern and northwest England on Monday and Tuesday. This rain will fall onto already saturated ground and the public should be aware of the possibility of some minor flooding, affecting for example some road networks.

This is an update to the warning issued on Sunday to enlarge the area to include more of Cumbria.

Valid 1145 Monday to 2355 Tuesday.

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for southwest Scotland.

Persistent rain will continue to affect southwest Scotland for the rest of Monday and through Tuesday morning before clearing away south on Tuesday afternoon.

With this rain falling onto already saturated ground, the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding and disruption to transport. This warning has been updated to bring the start time forward with an extension to the warning area.

Valid 1500 Monday to 1500 Tuesday.

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for Northern Ireland.

A period of occasionally heavy rain is expected to develop during Monday night and then last through much of Tuesday morning. Rainfall totals of 15-25 mm can be expected widely, with as much as 40 mm over high ground.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding and potential disruption to travel.

Valid 2100 Monday to 1200 Tuesday.

YELLOW WARNING of RAIN for north Wales.

Heavy rain will affect North Wales on Tuesday. Given high river levels from recent heavy rain, the public should be aware of the risk of further flooding, for example affecting some roads.

Valid 0900 to 2300 Tuesday.

Flood Warning

Issued by the Environment Agency or by SEPA in Scotland and Natural Resources Wales in Wales

Monday 22nd December 2014

There are flood warnings in place in the following regions;

SCOTLAND (6)

NORTHWEST (1)

Further updates will appear here.

About the Met Office Weather Warnings

BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.

Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.

Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.

There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.

A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.

When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings

About Flood Warnings

The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.

Find out more about Flood Warnings

There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.

Floodline - 0345 988 1188

Monthly Outlook

Monday 22 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary
A cold Christmas, but what about New Year?

Last week, most parts of the country saw particularly varied weather, even by the UK's changeable standards! Cloudy and damp spells brought in by mild westerly winds were regularly interrupted by incursions of colder, clearer air from the northwest. As result, overnight temperatures varied from values more akin to November daytime maxima through to the more seasonal sub zero temperatures that brought some icy patches on other nights. Northern parts of the UK experienced a decent stream of snow showers at times, but all areas saw plenty of mild weather too.

As we head through Christmas week and into the New Year, we look set to continue this varied theme mild and colder spells. Read on to find some of the details...

Monday 22 December—Sunday 28 December
A Christmas chill to feed in from the north?

The festive week gets underway with a familiar scenario. A weather front will lie across Scotland and Northern Ireland, marking the boundary between colder air to its north, and milder air to its south.

In the colder regime, skies will tend to be clearer with spells of crisp sunshine by day, lighter winds and overnight frosts, but there will be the risk of some wintry showers, that will bring some snow to the hills of northern Scotland in particular.

Along the front and to its south, we can expect much cloudier conditions and some prolonged outbreaks of rain, particularly for western facing hills, with eastern areas staying largely dry. The strength of the winds along the front and to its south will also be noteworthy, with particularly blustery conditions anticipated for areas to the east of The Pennines and the far southeast of Scotland early in the week.

Gradually, through Tuesday, Wednesday (Christmas Eve), and Thursday (Christmas Day), the weather front is expected sink southwards, allowing the colder, clearer conditions to reach to all parts by Christmas Day. Most places should become cold, dry and bright by Christmas Day, with just a few snow showers for north and northeast of Scotland. There is just a slight risk at the time of writing that the weather front may slow up a little as it transits southwards across southern Scotlland and Northern England. Should this happen, we could see a more prolonged spell of rain and possibly snow for these parts during Christmas Eve, but this is a low risk scenario.

Boxing day should start off clear and cold again, but as we head into the weekend, a deep area of low pressure is expected to swing in from the Atlantic, bringing some wet and very windy weather, particularly for northwestern parts, with even the risk of a transient period of snow for some more northern parts of the UK.

Monday 29 December—Sunday 4 January
A New Year but back to square one with the weather

The low pressure system that is likely to bring some particularly unsettled weather to northwestern parts of the UK through the previous weekend is expected to clear away to the east fairly readily through the last few days of the year. So at the time of writing, there seems to be a chance that the old year could end and the New Year begin on a relatively dry, clear and potentially chilly note. That said, all the latest weather forecasting techniques and computer models suggest that any such quieter, colder interlude will once again be swiftly replaced by a milder, wetter and windier westerly regime. In effect, this mean a return to the familiar pattern of cold and mainly dry conditions, followed by mild, wet and windy conditions that we have experienced through the last several weeks.

Monday 5 January—Sunday 18 January
Still no real sign of a prolonged cold spell

All the indications are that, as we move through to the end of January, the song remains the same! We continue to monitor the atmosphere and computer models, looking for any indications of a potential change to a less mobile and changeable weather set up over the UK. So far though, any sign of a prolonged cold or milder spell has yet to appear, and for the time being, it seems we will have to contend with large changes in weather conditions on an almost day to day basis! This means that milder, windy and wet spells will likely be interrupted by colder, clearer intervals. Of course, here at the BBC Weather Centre, we will continue to monitor the situation, and will keep you informed of any changes to the longer term forecast.

Next week

Statistically, January brings on average the most number of snow days during a given calender year. So can we expect much snow during January? Find out next week...

Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 29 December

Summary

Monday 22 December Published at 15:40

Summary

Rain, heavy across western hills, moving slowly southwards. Windy.
This Evening and Tonight

Rain will extend slowly southwards to affect Northern Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England, persistent and heavy across western hills. To the north it will be cold with frequent showers, and to the south, mild with patchy drizzle. Generally windy.

Tuesday

Rain will continue slowly southwards, heavy across western hills, reaching southern parts of the UK in the evening. It will stay cold further north with sunshine and showers.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday

Rain will clear southwards during Christmas Eve, with colder, clearer conditions following. Largely fine on Christmas Day with wintry showers across eastern Britain. Turning wet and windy on Boxing Day.

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UK Forecast Video

UK Forecast Last updated 17:48, Monday 22 Dec