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Friday 6 May Published at 12:21
Issued by the Met Office
YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN FOR WALES AND PARTS OF ENGLAND
1135 on Fri 6 May 2016
0600 on Sat 7 May 2016 to 2300 on Sat 7 May 2016
Scattered showers or outbreaks of rain are expected to spread north during Saturday morning, then lasting into the evening. Between the showers and rain some brighter spells with hazy sunshine are expected.
These showers may be heavy with the potential for lightning and small hail. Please be aware of the potential for localised disruption to travel and outdoor activities.
YELLOW WARNING OF RAIN FOR PARTS OF ENGLAND
1141 on Fri 6 May 2016
1300 on Sat 7 May 2016 to 2100 on Sat 7 May 2016
Whilst the majority of places within this warning area will see a dry and very warm Saturday with a good deal of hazy sunshine there is a very low likelihood of isolated intense thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening.
Please be aware that if these occur they are likely to be associated with torrential downpours as well as frequent lightning and hail leading to disruption to travel, outdoor activities and potentially flooding or temporary power disruption. Some very localised strong and gusty winds are also possible.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 2 May Published at 10:00
Is winter over yet?!
It was another blustery week of weather across the UK with rain, hail, sleet and even snow! Yet, if you were out of the breeze and in the sunshine, it did actually feel a little like spring, and by the end of the week it may actually start to feel like summer (well for some of us)!
Last week our weather was dominated by a northerly pattern which brought a continued spell of below-average temperatures, but this week our weather has more of a southerly and westerly influence and this means that are temperatures will start to creep back up.
Monday 2 May—Sunday 8 May
Some signs of summer!?
On Monday, the south east will start off on a damp note as rain moves south-eastwards. Behind the rain there will be sunshine and scattered showers but the showers will be mainly focused across the western half of the UK. We'll see sunny spells and some further showers during Tuesday and Wednesday and, as our winds will be westerly, we will see day on day improvement in temperatures. A mainly dry day on Thursday with temperatures approaching the mid-teens in the north and near twenties in the south, although Northern Ireland and the far north west of Scotland will be breezier with patchy rain. Dry and warmer for much of the UK on Friday as our winds start to become southerly. This will draw warmer air from the continent and and while most of the country will see temperatures in the mid-teens, the south may see temperatures closer to twenty Celsius. As we head into next weekend, the southerly influence will mean there is a risk of drawing thundery showers across the southern half of the UK. There is still a lot of model discrepancy as to what will happen across the northern half of the UK, but, at the time of writing, it looks there will be the risk of showers continuing to travel northwards.
Monday 9 May—Sunday 15 May
Have we finally said farewell to winter?
As we head into the second week of May, our computers models are emerging with a pattern of south or south-easterly wind direction. This can lead to quite a varied weather pattern from unsettled with showers and rain to dry and fine conditions. What this wind direction also indicates is that there will be rather warm conditions in the south at times, with this warmer air sometimes extending northwards across the rest of the UK.
Monday 16 May—Sunday 29 May
A northwest / southeast split?
Towards the end of May it is no surprise to know at this extended range there is quite a variety of weather patterns emerging from the various computer models. At this stage, the dominant wind direction is expected to be from the west or southwest, which would indicate lower pressure to the north and west of the UK and higher pressure to the south and east of the UK, the latter being where we are most likely to see the driest and at times warmest conditions.
So will this signal for a divide continue as we head into summer?
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 9 May
Friday 6 May Published at 14:45
Generally dry and warm. Showers developing into the southwest later.
This Evening and Tonight
A bright and pleasant evening followed by a dry and mild night for many. Any showers in the north will clear. Showery outbreaks will develop across southwestern parts overnight, pushing northwards into South Wales by dawn.
A warm day with a mix of sunshine and showers. Some Showers may be heavy with a risk of hail and thunder, these most likely over Wales and Central England.
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday
Warm with sunshine but also a risk of isolated thundery showers Sunday. Monday and Tuesday unsettled in southern parts with heavy showery rain, perhaps thundery, northern areas drier and brighter.