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Tuesday 13 October Published at 07:22
Issued by the Met Office
Tuesday 13 October
There are no weather warnings in force anywhere in the United Kingdom.
About the Met Office Weather Warnings
BBC Weather carries two types of weather warnings issued by the Met Office: Warnings and Early Warnings.
Warnings will be issued when severe weather is expected within the next 24 hours.
Early Warnings will be issued more than 24 hours ahead of severe weather.
There are three categories of event Red, Amber and Yellow - the most severe is Red.
A Warning and an Early Warning of the same colour have the same severity but are forecast to arrive at different times. Thus, the difference between a Red Warning and a Red Early Warning is the lead time of the event.
When a warning is in force, full information can be found at Met Office Weather Warnings
About Flood Warnings
The flood warnings are issued by the Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales, and sent to the BBC Weather Centre. We then issue a compendium of warnings based on the latest information available. When severe flood warnings are issued they will also be highlighted on TV broadcasts.
Find out more about Flood Warnings
There are a number of ways you find out whether your area is at risk from flooding. The Environment Agency, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency and Natural Resources Wales update their warnings 24 hours a day via the Floodline number.
Floodline - 0345 988 1188
Monday 12 October Published at 10:00
Autumn springs forward
Last weeks weather passed by and reminded us of the wide range of weather autumn can bring to UK shores. We started off the week with mild overnight temperatures of 15 Celsius, we then saw a transition to brisk mornings, foggy starts and if you were up early enough you'd have seen the grass twinkle with a touch of early frost. Ex-hurricane Joaquin slid by us into Iberia and all in all we probably started thinking that a heavier coat would be an excellent idea for the mornings and evenings.
Mid-October is upon us and there is a distinct sense that autumn has taken hold. Now where did we put those gloves?
Monday 12 October—Monday 19 October
High pressure and wind screen scrapers!
During this week we will hear the expression 'high pressure'. What is high pressure and more importantly what does it mean for our weather?
Right the way through this week high pressure will remain close to or across the UK. The orientation of the high pressure means that we will draw in easterly winds and what we will notice is how chilly it will feel. At this time of year the continent cools off markedly and so if our air is coming from a colder place, the implication is that our weather will be colder although not quite as chilly as where the air comes from (as it is modified as it travels over its hundreds of miles).
For Monday, Tuesday and much of Wednesday we will see a good deal of sunshine. Despite the sunshine it will feel chilly and overnight temperatures will quickly fall away to give extensive frost. The exceptions to this rule on Monday will be across southern Scotland and northern England where a very weak weather front will introduce some cloud and occasional patchy rain. On Wednesday, south-eastern areas of England will see the risk of an occasional sharp shower. Otherwise fine but chilly autumnal conditions will prevail.
By the time we get to Thursday, a weak frontal system will bring some patchy rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland and a decaying frontal system will bring the risk of well scattered showers to eastern parts of Britain. Elsewhere, there will be plenty of fine but chilly weather.
In general any change of season from one to the next is always very notable until we become 'weathered' to it. The message for this week is below average temperatures for October and at times frosty nights and mornings. So get your windscreen scrapers at the ready and leave a few minutes extra in the morning!
Monday 19 October—Sunday 25 October
How long with high pressure hang around?
Pressure is expected to remain relatively high as we start next week but we are expecting high pressure to gradually weaken and frontal systems will begin to come close to and at times affect the UK.
What will this mean for our weather? Temperatures, both by day and night, will recover slowly to what we would expect for this time of year. Rainfall amounts are in general expected to remain quite low, while others will see normal amounts of rainfall return. However, this transition from a theme of high pressure to one of lower pressure bringing at times unsettled weather is open to question.
Monday 26 October—Sunday 8 November
What's in store for the end of autumn?
We are very fortunate to have quite literally hundreds of atmospheric computer models from all around the world to look at. Grouping the ideas that come out of these computer models can be tricky and trying to find realistic patterns in what they are saying is a nothing short of a challenge. What is emerging from the various long range models is a variety of weather patterns. How do we interpret this? This indicates that we are likely to see a very changeable weather pattern ranging from at times mild when rain comes in off the Atlantic and at times cold when cold air seeps in from the cooler continent. The weather will be further complicated by the fact that we are reaching the end of another season with shorter days and less sunshine and we begin to transition towards winter.
The end of autumn will be in sight in the long term models and winter will be just around the corner. Find out next week if we can put any more detail on Halloween weather.
Monthly forecastingThe weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Next update at 10:00, Monday 19 October
Tuesday 13 October Published at 02:38
Mostly dry and bright. Showers in the east. Feeling chilly.
Dry with sunny periods after a chilly and frosty start in places. More cloud across central and eastern parts with some showers. Feeling chilly in the brisk northeasterly wind, particularly across southeast England.
Mostly dry with clear spells, with a widespread frost in the north and west. Breezy with showers in the south and east, most frequent across southeast England, where locally heavy.
After a chilly start, many places will be mostly dry with bright or sunny spells. Further showers in the southeast, locally heavy, where feeling noticeably chilly in brisk northeasterly wind.
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday
A weakening rain band in the far north on Thursday may erratically move south. Most places staying cool and dry with sunny spells, though cloudier with showers in the southeast.