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| Tuesday December 02, 2008 | Accessibility help | Text only | Print | Send to a friend | Make this my homepage | Contact Us | Help |
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Nature's Forecasters | 
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What did we do before the time of television, radio and internet weather forecasts? Were we all at the mercy of whatever Mother Nature decided to throw at us? |
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Has the comfort of our homes and increasing amount of time spent in offices turned off an inherent ability to read natures signs? ...many of these 'old wives tales' have no scientific basis...
The ability of our ancestors to use subtle changes in animal behaviour and plant growth to predict their local weather would have played an important role in their survival. These observations have been passed down through the generations as weather lore. While many of these 'old wives tales' have no scientific basis, some have been found to be surprisingly accurate and are still used, often subconsciously, in our everyday life.
In a recent interview in the Daily Telegraph, Dr Tim Sparks, an environmental scientist at the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology said that "The idea that plants and animals can make long-term predictions about weather patterns is just not credible." In his studies of historical records of rainfall and temperature, he has found that there is no truth in the well-known saying regarding the appearance of the leaves on oak and ash trees. However, there are a number of phenomenon that, in the short term, prove to be reliable predictors of the weather. ...seabirds are genetically programmed to detect shifts in barometric pressure...
Birds, in particular seabirds, are genetically programmed to detect shifts in barometric pressure such as that connected with the approach of a low pressure system. This may explain saying "Seabirds, stay out from the land, we won't have good weather while you're on the sand".
The saying "Swallows high, staying dry; swallows low, wet will blow" also appears to have a scientific basis. During fine weather, the insects that the birds feed on are carried up high on warm thermal currents rising from the ground. In Australia, the saying "When the kookaburras call, the rain will fall" is said to be true in winter, while Aboriginal people near Melbourne say that crows cawing insistently is a sure sign that rain is coming. It's not just birds that can predict the approach of rain. Bees are seen to return to their hives and are unlikely to swarm before a storm. They are probably detecting tiny changes in air pressure too. ...young joeys in kangaroos' pouches in particularly dry areas is a sign that the rains are on their way...
Another example from Aboriginal weather lore is that seeing young joeys in kangaroos' pouches in particularly dry areas is a sign that the rains are on their way. Kangaroos can actually store their embryos in suspended animation until the time of rains when there is plenty of food for their young.
Some observations have shown that fish 'bite' more before a rainstorm, as do small flies or midges - maybe because it is their last chance to feed before the rain. One of the most well-known examples of weather lore, with a film of the same name, is Groundhog Day. In the USA, on 2 February each year, if the Groundhog emerges from his hole and sees his shadow, it is a prediction of six weeks of cold wintry weather. US research suggests that there is little truth in this tradition, but this doesn't stop the popularity of the annual ritual. Many people notice that their pets change their behaviour before storms, in particular thunderstorms, or that dogs sniff the air repeatedly before a change in the weather. "If the chickens stay out in the rain, the rain will be an all day rain"
A final observation comes again from the world of birds. "If the chickens stay out in the rain, the rain will be an all day rain, but if they run into the chicken house, it will be a short shower." It may not rhyme, and the chances of any of us using chickens to predict rain are increasingly unlikely, but the knowledge of chickens dislike of rain goes some way to understanding the unusual saying "Mad as a wet hen!"
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