Monthly Outlook
BBC Broadcast Meteorologist Darren Bett updates this forecast for the coming month using Met office data.Find out more...
Monthly Summary
Unsettled for the next couple of weeks, but relatively mild as winds blow in from the southwest.
The start of October saw the first autumn frosts in many areas and the first of the winter snows across the tops of the Scottish mountains, thanks to a brief incursion of polar air from the north.
October can be a rather stormy month, with Atlantic weather systems able to pick up energy from the still relatively warm waters to the west of the UK, but it can also bring the typical "Indian summer" weather if warm winds blow in from the south.
It looks as if we can expect a little taste of both during the next week or two.
Monday 06 October 2008 to Sunday 12 October 2008
“Some spells of wet and windy weather, but quieter midweek.”
Low pressure will dominate across the central Atlantic during the week, pushing a succession of weather fronts eastwards across the British Isles.
After a wet and windy spell on Tuesday, a weak ridge of high pressure should settle things down for a time on Wednesday with most places enjoying some sunshine for a time.
The ridge holds on into Thursday across southeastern parts of the UK, where it will feel pleasantly warm. Southwesterly gales and heavy rain will sweep in across northwestern areas, gradually edging southwards during Friday with a risk of severe gales in some areas.
The weekend looks like staying rather unsettled with brisk winds and showers or longer spells of rain in most places.
Monday 13 October 2008 to Sunday 19 October 2008
"Unsettled, autumnal theme continues."
The unsettled, autumnal theme is set to continue for the rest of the period, although southern and eastern areas are likely to fare best with more in the way of dry and bright weather.
Temperatures will be generally near to above normal throughout the period, with frost unlikely at night. For southern and eastern areas, it may occasionally feel quite warm on any brighter days.
Monday 20 October 2008 to Sunday 02 November 2008
“No clear signal, but perhaps a little drier.”
There's little sign of agreement between the various forecast models for any definite trend during this period, so confidence is low.
Low pressure may loosen its grip, allowing some drier spells, but there is also a suggestion that temperatures may edge a little lower at the same time.
Will the long November nights bring frost and fog?
Autumn storms or Indian summer? Or maybe both?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
Further information:
Met Office
