Iran nuclear deal: Dead or just dying?
- 14 January 2020
- From the section Middle East
In invoking the dispute mechanism for the Iran nuclear agreement or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - in other words, in deciding to hold Tehran to account for its breaches of the deal - the UK, France and Germany insist that they are still firmly behind the deal.
"Our hope is to bring Iran back into full compliance with its commitments under the JCPOA," their joint statement reads.
Treaties and agreements usually have dispute mechanisms to allow one party to challenge another if they think the terms of the deal are being broken.
But the situation with the Iran nuclear agreement is a little different. The dispute mechanism is there, but the moment for invoking it may be long past.
One major party - the US - has already abandoned it. President Donald Trump pulled out of the agreement in May 2018 and reimposed crippling economic sanctions against Tehran. Then after a year or so's delay, Tehran took a series of steps to breach the deal's constraints, the most recent earlier this month.
Iran plane downing: Five reasons why the US-Iran crisis is not over
- 13 January 2020
- From the section Middle East
Image copyright
EPA
Thankfully, the crisis provoked by the US killing of top Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani has not escalated into a full-scale war.
In that sense, there has been de-escalation.
Read full article Iran plane downing: Five reasons why the US-Iran crisis is not over
Iran's attack: Is there more to come?
- 8 January 2020
- From the section Middle East
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Reuters
Given the significance of General Qasem Soleimani and the passions that his killing aroused, Iran's military strike against US bases in Iraq was a modest response.
Iran is claiming to have inflicted significant US casualties but this does not appear to be the case. The US says that its radars provided warning of the attacks and the Iranian missiles appear to have landed in areas where there were no US forces present.
Is the Iran nuclear deal dead and buried?
- 6 January 2020
- From the section Middle East
In theory, the Iran nuclear deal is still in existence. But only just.
The country has announced that it will no longer be bound by any of its restrictions in terms of the numbers or type of centrifuges that can be operated or the level of enrichment of uranium that it can pursue.
Turkey risks falling deeper into Libya conflict as it deploys troops
- 2 January 2020
- From the section Africa
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Reuters
Turkey risks becoming even more deeply embroiled in Libya's conflict and its decision to deploy troops marks a new stage in the internationalisation of the fighting.
Turkey has already supplied armoured vehicles to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli and also operates drones on its behalf.
Read full article Turkey risks falling deeper into Libya conflict as it deploys troops
Troubled Nato not in party mood for 70th birthday
- 2 December 2019
- From the section Europe
Seventy years of existence is clearly worth celebrating, but Nato is strangely low-key about this week's brief gathering of alliance heads of state and government outside London.
Nato spokesmen reject the label of "summit", insisting that this is really a lesser affair; that there was a full-scale summit only last year; and that this gathering will not release the traditional lengthy communiqué of conclusions and future plans.
Read full article Troubled Nato not in party mood for 70th birthday
Israel-Iran: Risk of an all-out conflict grows after Syria strikes
- 20 November 2019
- From the section Middle East
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Reuters
The Israeli Air Force's strikes against targets in Syria mark the latest stage in a developing struggle between Israel and Iran, one that inevitably risks a much broader conflict.
Iran is eager to bolster its military footprint in Syria. Israel is just as eager to stop it.
Read full article Israel-Iran: Risk of an all-out conflict grows after Syria strikes
US-Russia surveillance flights treaty under threat
- 30 October 2019
- From the section Europe
Image copyright
AirTeamImages.com
Last February, a four-engined US OC-135B aircraft - a variant of the old Stratolifter military transport plane - lumbered into the air to conduct a surveillance flight over Russia.
Among those on board were six Russian officials to ensure fair-play. It was all part of a little-known agreement - the Open Skies Treaty - that since entering into force in 2002 has enabled unarmed reconnaissance flights over Russia, the United States and several other countries to improve confidence and assure against surprise attack.
Read full article US-Russia surveillance flights treaty under threat
Russia, Turkey and Syrian government on the same page - but for how long?
- 23 October 2019
- From the section Middle East
Image copyright
Reuters
The diplomatic and military choreography tells the story in a nutshell.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets his Turkish opposite number to underscore Moscow's role as the would-be guarantor of stability in the region. Russia and Turkey will soon be mounting joint patrols to help delineate the boundary of the new, so-called security zone. Meanwhile, withdrawing US special forces vehicles are pelted with vegetables and rubbish as they leave their erstwhile Kurdish allies to their fate.
Read full article Russia, Turkey and Syrian government on the same page - but for how long?
Turkey Syria offensive: What did the Kurds ever do for the US?
- 10 October 2019
- From the section Middle East
Even by President Trump's own remarkable standards, his off-the-cuff remark that the US alliance with the Kurds is of little importance because they were not at Normandy - they did not fight with the US and its allies in World War Two - is extraordinary.
It is much more recent history that matters in Syria and there, the Kurds have proved Washington's closest and most effective partner.
Read full article Turkey Syria offensive: What did the Kurds ever do for the US?
