Entertainment & Arts

Strictly Come Dancing: Did we predict the finalists?

Alexandra and Gorka on Strictly

At the start of series 15 of Strictly Come Dancing, the BBC Reality Check team looked at whether statistics from previous series could help us predict the winner.

You can read our story here.

It turned out that if you got to the halfway point in the contest, nothing you had done so far would prevent you from making it into the final.

At that stage the number of points you had received from the judges remained the best indicator, bearing in mind that the BBC does not release the results of the public vote.

In the current series, four couples have made the final.

If you look at the leaderboard from the judges in week seven (the halfway point), the top three couples have all made it to the final, while Gemma Atkinson and Aljaz Skorjanec came in eighth place.

Image caption Debbie and Giovanni got a 10 from Craig in week seven

Other strong indicators that you were likely to go all the way included receiving a 10 from one of the judges - a 10 from famously hard-to-please judge Craig Revel Horwood meaning you were practically a shoo-in to the final.

In the semi-final, Debbie McGee and Giovanni Pernice, as the only couple with a 10 from Craig, were very likely to make it through to the final, while Mollie King and AJ Pritchard, as the only couple left in the competition who had not received a 10 from any of the judges, were at risk.

And indeed, Mollie and AJ went out following a dance-off with Gemma and Aljaz, who had received two 10s from the judges in previous weeks.

Alexandra Burke and Gorka Marquez got a 10 from Craig in the semi-final for their salsa so it's all to play for in Saturday's final.

With thanks to Susan Connolly from the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge for help with the statistical analysis.

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