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Live Reporting

By David Deans, Andy Roberts and Ruth Thomas

All times stated are UK

  1. Turnout benchmarks

    The turnout in this by-election has been confirmed as 59.72%.

    Dr Ed Gareth Poole from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre says this is the highest turnout in a parliamentary by-election since Winchester in 1997.

    In the 2017 general election turnout in Brecon and Radnorshire was 74.6%.

  2. Brexit Party 'running third'

    Des Parkinson

    Des Parkinson, the Brexit Party candidate for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, told BBC Wales: "It looks as if we're running third at the moment.

    "Coming third is what we thought would happen when we arrived here this evening.

    "We've only been in existence for three and a half months," he added.

    Mr Parkinson said he is sure there has been a "Boris bounce over the last week or so" to benefit the Tories.

  3. Turnout

    Our reporter at the count, Teleri Glyn Jones says the turnout is 59.72%

  4. Loonies in Llanelwedd

    Official Monster Raving Loony Party leader Howling Laud Hope and candidate Lady Lily The Pink

    The Official Monster Raving Loony Party leader Howling Laud Hope has arrived at the count with candidate Lady Lily The Pink.

    She told the BBC last week she was standing to give people the option of saying they wanted "none of the above".

    Is she destined to come sixth out of six?

  5. Tory 'quietly confident'

    Nick Ramsay, a Conservative member of the Welsh Assembly, reckons it'll be a close run thing between his party and the Liberal Democrats.

    View more on twitter
  6. Handling the result

    Dr Caroline Turner

    All eyes will be on Powys County Council chief executive Dr Caroline Turner in a few hours' time.

    As the acting returning officer, she will be announcing the result.

  7. 'Looks like a Lib Dem gain'

    The view from a former aide to Theresa May

    Chris Wilkins

    Chris Wilkins, from Barry, former director of strategy for Theresa May, says: “I think at this stage of the evening it probably looks like a Liberal Democrats gain, but maybe with a smaller majority than they would have hoped.

    "I think that will allow the new prime minister to say that he has managed to get the Conservative vote up and squeeze the Brexit Party vote.

    "If that’s the result, there’s something in there for everyone in that outcome.”

  8. Number crunching

    There are 53,393 registered voters in Brecon & Radnorshire.

    Geographically it is the largest parliamentary constituency in Wales and England and it has 93 polling stations.

    That means that the ballot boxes travelled an estimated 1,800 miles in total to get to the counting centre at the Royal Welsh Showground in Llanelwedd tonight.

  9. A panoramic view

    From our reporter Teleri Glyn Jones at the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election count in Llanelwedd..

    Panoramic view of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election count
  10. Recent political history

    The Brecon & Radnorshire by-election was called after 10,005 people signed a petition to recall Conservative MP Chris Davies after he was convicted of making a false expenses claim.

    He first won the seat in the 2015 general election and increased his majority in 2017.

    Brecon & Radnorshire is represented in the Welsh Assembly by former Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams. She has represented the area since the assembly was created in 1999. Since the 2016 election, Ms Williams has been the Welsh Government's education minister.

  11. Meet the candidates

    Brecon and Radnorshire by-election candidates

    Find out more about the six contenders who have been vying for votes in Brecon & Radnorshire.

  12. Previous by-elections

    This has been the third parliamentary by-election to be held in Brecon & Radnorshire (previously known as Brecon & Radnor) since the constituency was formed.

    There was one in 1939 – eighty years to this day - after the MP was elevated to the House of Lords, and one in 1985 following the death of the Conservative MP Tom Hooson.

    Welsh Affairs Editor Vaughan Roderick says this year's Brecon and Radnorshire by-election has received less media attention than the one in 1985, but it could prove to be far more important politically.

    Picture of the candidates in the 1985 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election waiting to hear the result
    Image caption: Back in 1985, the BBC devoted half of the Nine O'Clock News to discussing the result of the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
  13. Could it be close for Chris Davies?

    David Deans

    BBC Wales politics reporter

    The Conservatives here think it will be a close-run thing tonight. "Tighter than we thought it was going to be," a source said.

    The reason? Boris Johnson. They think he's taken the wind out of the Brexit Party sails, and removed the reason for Tory voters to back Nigel Farage's party.

    The question is whether those voters are motivated enough to back Chris Davies, after the events of recent months - and his conviction for a false expenses claim.

    The Tory source we spoke to said the only people bringing it up were Liberal Democrats. Time will tell.

  14. Will Labour hold its deposit?

    David Deans

    BBC Wales politics reporter

    It is very, very early days - we may not get a result here for a few hours, maybe quite a few hours.

    But already party activists here are considering how the day has gone.

    The Welsh Liberal Democrats have thrown everything at this by-election. A Lib Dem source says they are "confident they can do this" but it is "not in the bag".

    The thing to keep in mind, they said, was Chris Davies' "massive majority" in 2017, of around 8,000.

    There are mixed messages from the Brexit Party. One senior figure here tonight told me they didn't think they were going to win the poll, saying second would be a good result, pipping the Tories.

    But before Thursday I heard complaints from within the new party that its campaign had not been well organised and amounted to "amateur hour".

    And what about Labour? The party had held the seat up to 1979. There are murmurs here tonight of the party coming fourth. Will candidate Tom Davies hold his deposit?

  15. An expert view

    Prof Laura McAllister

    Prof Laura McAllister from Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre says:

    • The Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is the first electoral test for new prime minister Boris Johnson and the new Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson. It's less welcome for one leader.
    • The result is crucial for Commons arithmetic. A Conservative loss would mean the UK government has an effective majority of one, with implications for Brexit and confidence in Boris Johnson.
    • The result is not a foregone conclusion. The Lib Dems were favourites to win from the start but it's no banker for them.
    • The Lib Dems need a swing of almost 10% - a narrow victory could encourage future Remain deals.(Plaid Cymru is not standing in this election and their 3% vote from 2017 might prove crucial).
    • A recent poll put the Conservatives ahead in Wales with a very modest "Boris bounce" - many postal votes were sent in before Mr Johnson became PM.
    • Could UKIP finish below the Monster Raving Loony Party?
  16. The votes are coming in

    Brecon and Radnorshire by-election count

    The first ballot boxes have arrived at the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election count in Llanelwedd. The votes will be verified before counting begins.