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Uncertainty over tariff barriers

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Mat Sechovsky, Fitch Solutions’ senior political risk analyst, says that the extent of the Conservative Party's victory will allow Boris Johnson to "pass the new Brexit deal, begin negotiating a crucial UK-EU free trade agreement (FTA), and implement investment and other pledges from the Conservative manifesto".

"The UK will now almost certainly leave the EU by January 31, 2020, though the timeline of the FTA talks with the EU will likely prove unrealistic and require adjustments either on timing or scope, leading to uncertainty on possible tariff barriers in UK-EU trade from January 2021".

He said Labour could shift toward more centrist policies in the longer term while the the Scottish National Party’s performance will lead to greater tensions with the next Conservative government. "We expect the party will hesitate to immediately push for independence out of economic concerns," Mr Sechovsky.