Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland population to rise over 5% by 2024

Population Image copyright PA
Image caption The report predicts the population aged 65 and over will increase by almost 26%

The population of Northern Ireland is projected to rise by 5.3% to 1,938,700 by 2024.

The figures come from a report produced by the NI Statistics and Research Agency (Nisra).

It uses assumptions about births, deaths and migration to project population changes.

It predicts that the working-age population will rise by less than 1% but the population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by almost 26%.

The report also assumes that the level of migration to Northern Ireland will continue to be very low.

It breaks down population changes by local government district and predicts the largest rise of 10.4%, or 21,400 people, in Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon.


The smallest increase is predicted for Derry City and Strabane, up by 1.5% or 2,200 people.

Derry City and Strabane is one of seven out of 11 areas projected to see a decline in their work-age populations.

Over the longer term, the population of Northern Ireland is projected to reach two million by mid-2034.

By mid-2038, annual population growth is projected to fall below 0.2% for the first time since mid-1999, due to a falling number of births and rising number of deaths as a result of an ageing population.

The population aged 65 and over is projected to increase by 74.4%, or 498,500 people, from mid-2014 to mid-2039, with the result that one in four people (24.7%) will be in this age category.

The report does not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies or changing economic circumstances might have on demographic behaviour.

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