US Elections 2020: Trump or Biden who go be di president? You decide
Dis year US presidential election fit come down to results for just few key states.
Sabi pipo don predict say most states inside America go vote one way or another during di 3 November election - so we don already assign 188 votes to oga Trump and 233 to oga Biden.
Joe Biden fit wrestle enough to fit seize di presidency? Or Donald Trump go enta again for second term?
E dey all about di race to 270 electoral votes - and dis time na you go decide.
Call di result for key states to predict di next US president
Wisconsin
Votes: 10
Donald Trump bin win surprise victory for Wisconsin for 2016 by small gap, im mainly appeal to rural areas and working-class white women. But dis same group of voters bin help elect one Democratic state governor two years later – and oga Biden dey currently ahead for di voting.
Pipo from Wisconsin fit don vex for oga Trump foreign trade wars wey don affect exportation from di state wey be majorly farmers, leading to drop in prices and closure of farms.
Di state don get even more wahala afta police shoot one black man for di city of Kenosha. Republicans dey warn say if Democrats win, e go cause lawlessness and more violence. But e go move Wisconsin voters?
Arizona
Votes: 11
Donald Trump pack di traditionally Republican state for 2016, but im 4% lead dey small pass di ones wey oda republican candidates wey contest elections bin dey pack for dat region.
Dis time, di pollsters dey predict say Oga Trump fit lose to Biden. Di Grand Canyon state get one Latino population and di number of rich pipo wey dey live for dat area dey increase. And e dey likely say both of dem fit vite for Democrat. Coronavirus don also hit di state badly, so voters wey think say di president no gree handle di pandemic well fit change dia mind.
But Oga Trump plan to build wall along di state southern border wit Mexico, and di crackdown on visas for foreign workers, still fit play well wit voters.
North Carolina
Votes: 15
North Carolina na former Republican base before Barack Obama win wit narrow majority for 2008. Dat blue small change for history of voting red suggest say Democratic victory no fit happen at all.
Both oga Biden and oga Trump don drop millions for advertising to try get di state wia Biden dey lead for polls.
North Carolina na di first state to start early voting by post and high number of demands for postal votes don flood in – more than half of dem na Democrats. If mail-in voting change di final result, tins no go too set for Trump.
Michigan
Votes: 16
Trump bin manage win here for 2016 wit just 0.3% ahead of Hilary Clinton. Di traditional Democratic, working-class state break dia 28-year-old record to elect Donald Trump aft aim promise trade deals to benefit manufacturing.
Joe Biden, wey im papa dey sell car, say im get deep personal connection to Detroit and im dey visit Michigan well-well as vice-president. Im even consider popular Michigan Govnor Gretchen Whitmer as im running mate. Pipo see Biden as strong candidate, di type wey dey always do well for Michigan.
Penilvania
Votes: 20
Four years ago, western Pennyslvanians bin vote to preserve dia way of life wey dey reliant on di energy industry and flip di traditionally Democrat state for Donald Trump. Im promise protection from Democratic promise dem to change di coal mining and fracking. But oga Trump deliver?
Unemployment don enta double-digits since di pandemic strike. Biden, wey dem born for di eastern town of Scranton (wey pipo sabi as di house of Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, Inc. for di US version of British comedy The Office), don be face wey pipo sabi and dat one fit make am win.
Florida
Votes: 29
One tin dey sure for Florida: dia elections dey close. Di sunshine state fit be di adopted second house of Donald Trump, but im no gada majority votes for di last election.
Di result for Florida hard to call sake of dia population na different-different pipo. Di state big Latino population na mostly Republican, but dem dey mostly live for Democratic counties for di state. Pensioners from oda states continue to retire to Florida, and dem dey show well-well to vote. Younger voters, wey be mostly Democrat, dey multiply. And voters for suburban areas across di state don dey shift comot small-small from di Republican party.
Make your eyes dey watch closely for Florida result on election night: for everi election bar one since 1964, di presidential candidate wey don win Florida don also win di White House.
Georgia
Votes: 16
Georgia don vote Republican well-well for evri presidential election since 1960, apart from twice. Upon dat one, dis year, Biden campaign team believe say im get chance. Dem dey rely on support from black voters, wey be at least one quarter of all di registered voters for di state.
For race matter, Biden dey gap Trump for polls. Black Lives Matter protests don grip national news dis year, and Georgia youth don lead demonstrations outside major cities.
But Trump dey pitch imsef as di "law-and-order candidate", wey fit carry weight wit white pipo, conservatives for di state, wey dey mostly carry di state result.
Everitin depend on who show for polling day.
How we take pick dis state dem?
For di US election system, na di state-level results go count. Each state get some number of electoral votes, based on population, and many reliably vote di same way each time.
Two independent American sources, Real Clear Politics and di Cook Political Report, publish lists of states wey dem group by how dem dey expect pipo to vote on election night.
Dem classify different states as "toss-ups", wey mean say either side fit win am.
We chose our seven key states from those toss-ups wey get enough electoral votes to shake di final outcome and wia we expect say di battle go tough. President Trump win all of dem for 2016
Why di candidates dey start with some votes?
Since sabi pipo don already predict say most states go vote one way or another, we don assign dia electoral votes one by one to di candidate wey each of di states dey consider most likely to vote for.
Dis one mean say di game start for 188 votes for oga Trump and 233 for oga Biden.
Tie fit dey?
Technically, yes. Electoral college total votes na of 538 and e dey possible for two candidates to win states for such a way wey be say each go come out with 269 votes. Na-wa-oh.
E also dey possible for no candidate to receive majority. To fit know di single winner, di US House of Representatives go vote for di next president and di US Senate go vote for di next vice-president. Dis kian method no dey common, although, e don only happun for few times for US history… and not since di 19th Century.
Writer and producer na Harriet Agerholm, Becky Dale, Evisa Terziu and Sean Willmott
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