Remi Garde believes Aston Villa need to win 10 of their remaining 21 games to stand a chance of avoiding relegation.
The bottom side are 10 points from safety after Saturday's 1-1 draw at Newcastle and host West Ham on Boxing Day having not won in 16 games.
"I think we need at least 10 victories," said Garde, whose team will train on Christmas Day morning.
"With 36 points you can be safe. Sometimes you go down, sometimes with more points you can go down."
The 49-year-old Frenchman, who replaced Tim Sherwood in November, added: "Step by step we need to concentrate on the first win, then the second. We need to start very quickly that is for sure.
"We have seen the Norwich and Bournemouth victories against teams you never would have expected. You never know, maybe this is a year when you can win or lose against any team."