Goalkeeper Gemma Fay thinks a point in Iceland in September will be enough to secure Scotland Women a first-ever place at a major finals.
Iceland lead Anna Signeul's Scots on goal difference - both have 18 points - in Group 1 and have a game in hand.
But seven of the eight runners-up will still qualify for Euro 2017.
"We reckon that 19 points will secure a place, but it depends on other groups," Fay told BBC Scotland after her side's 1-0 win over Belarus in Minsk.
The Scots had taken over at the top of their group for a couple of hours until Iceland recorded a thumping 8-0 win over bottom side Macedonia.
France, Germany and Switzerland have already qualified for the finals as group winners, but the winners in the other five - and the runners-up places - are still to be decided.
Scotland are already assured of at least a play-off place - with the two worst-placed runners-up facing an extra tie to decide who misses out.
"It is a really exciting qualification this time round because there's still a whole load of spots up for grabs on the last weekend in September," she said.
"We are well placed, but until the fat lady sings, we are not counting any chickens."
Scotland lost their 100% record in the group when they slumped to a 4-0 defeat at home to Iceland on Friday.
Fay believes that the Scots can gain revenge in September, but they would have to beat the side sitting one place above them in the world rankings by 5-0 to top the group if Iceland beat Belarus on 15 September.
"We've beaten Iceland before and I think it is the first time we have lost to them in a while," she said.
"But, in all honesty, if we are one of the group winners or one of the best six runners-up, I am not too fussed.
"It will be more about the performance against Iceland - we owe it to ourselves and we owe it to the country to put in a better performance."
A Jo Love goal after 15 minutes was enough for the Scots in Minsk against a side they thumped 7-0 at Fir Park in October.
"I guess people will see that score from October and think that 1-0 is not so great, but they had a different goalkeeper in and she made three, four, maybe more, fantastic saves," said Fay.
"We dominated possession, but I don't think we were ever in any danger of not winning the game and it was a very professional performance to secure the victory we needed."