England at Euro 2016: Why we will beat Iceland - Danny Murphy
|Euro 2016 last 16: England v Iceland|
|Venue: Allianz Riviera, Nice Date: Monday, 27 June Kick-off: 20:00 BST|
|Coverage: Listen on BBC Radio 5 live, text commentary on the BBC Sport website|
Iceland are a well-organised side but they lack quality and, if England cannot beat them in Nice on Monday, then we deserve to go home.
We are going to have to be careful with Aron Gunnarsson's long throws and their other set-plays, because they are a big side and they are good at them.
They will pack their defence too but, if we play the same way we did in all three of our group games at Euro 2016, I think we will win and reach the quarter-finals.
What we don't want is a situation where we are desperately trying to push forward to break them down, lose our shape and get done on the counter-attack.
That is what Iceland have done so well in France - they do not create much but they have the highest shot-conversion rate of any team here.
We will have to stay focused at the back and be patient, but we are going to dominate possession and we will be able to open them up - I am certain of that.
Roy will pick Kane - I would go for Vardy
The reason I am so confident is because we have had so many chances against all three teams we have played so far in this tournament.
Only Portugal had more shots in the group stage than we managed against Russia, Wales and Slovakia, and Iceland are simply not as good as those last two teams.
|Top teams at Euro 2016 (group stage)|
|Shots at goal||Shot conversion rate|
|1. Portugal - 70||1. Iceland - 17.4%|
|2. England - 64||2. Hungary - 17.1%|
|3. Germany - 62||3. Wales - 15.8%|
|4. Belgium - 56||4. Italy - 12%|
|5. Spain - 51||5. Northern Ireland - 11.8%|
|* 22/24. Iceland - 23||* 20/24. England - 4.7%|
We just have to play at the same tempo we have done in all our matches in France so far, keep the ball moving, get it into people's feet around the box and mix things up by getting crosses in too.
I can see Roy Hodgson bringing back Tottenham duo Kyle Walker and Danny Rose as his full-backs, and Dele Alli and Wayne Rooney will return, which makes sense because that is our strongest midfield.
He will stick with his 4-3-3 formation because our shape has been decent and defensively we have been fine. The only area where there is a real selection decision to be made is up front.
It looks like Roy is going to bring in Raheem Sterling but I'd have retained Adam Lallana, because he has been terrific. I imagine that if Sterling does start it will be on the left of the front three, with Daniel Sturridge just tucked in off the right again.
What Sturridge gives you, especially around the box, is his ability to go past people. He has got quick feet that can open up the kind of packed defence England will face in Nice.
I have got a feeling Roy will go for Harry Kane in the middle because Iceland will not leave any space behind their back-line for Jamie Vardy to exploit. He will probably feel that Kane is a bit better with his back to goal on the edge of the box.
Personally, I would leave Vardy in because he looks that little bit sharper - although Kane could easily make me eat my words, because he is the sort of player who can go a couple of games without playing well then bang a wonder goal in.
Whoever plays, though, we should be good enough.
Trust in what we are doing
I had a debate with fellow BBC pundit Alan Shearer after the 0-0 draw with Slovakia because he was more critical of how England played in the second half of that game.
My point was that, before Euro 2016 started, Slovakia had only lost two out of 20 games in the past two years and they are a decent side defensively.
I was not arguing with Alan about the fact we should have beaten them, and there is no hiding from the fact we have struggled a bit in front of goal. We will have to be far more clinical from now on, but we are doing everything else right.
We are always very self-critical - I think most countries are. I have been reading some of the French newspapers and they have jumped on France's backs a bit too.
England's performances so far have been better than I thought they would be and, if I were on the coaching staff, I would be quite pleased. If you are going to have a misfiring frontline, if you want to call it that, then it is better to have it in the group stage.
Personally, I would rather try to be positive about the way things have gone than jump on to all the negatives about the manager supposedly not knowing his best team and mixing his formation.
If he had stayed with the same team and formation for three games, people would be asking why he has not changed it around - sometimes you cannot win as an England coach.
Deal with Roy's future when Euro 2016 is done
Knowing Roy, I think it will have annoyed him that his boss at the Football Association, Greg Dyke, has been talking about his future while England are still in Euro 2016. You have to be bright enough to bat some questions away while the tournament is going on.
For me, there has definitely been a progression from England since the 2014 World Cup. We have got a talented bunch of players and they are playing with energy, desire and on the front foot.
The fact we have moved forward is a credit to Roy and his coaching staff for working with the team and giving them confidence and freedom. He lets them go out and express themselves when a lot of people suggested he would not do that.
What happens next is clearly going to be based on the next couple of weeks, though, not the last two years.
Roy knows his position is under pressure and if England do not beat Iceland, it is impossible for him to stay in charge. At the same time, it is pretty obvious the situation will be very different if we get to the semi-finals or further, and that is attainable.
At the moment, we are looking good. The speculation about Roy's new contract is not going to affect the team's preparation or performance on Monday, so let's just deal with all of that when this tournament is done.
Danny Murphy was speaking to BBC Sport's Chris Bevan in France.
My England starting XI
Choose who you would pick in the England starting XI in Russia - and then share it with your friends using our team selector.