Champions League: Liverpool the British club most likely to progress, says study

By Alex BysouthBBC Sport
Liverpool progressed to the Champions League group stage by beating Hoffenheim in qualifying

Liverpool's Champions League draw makes them the British club most likely to qualify for the knockout stage, according to an analytical study.

Gracenote Sportsexternal-link says their chances of progressing from the group stage rose by 30% when they were drawn with Sevilla, Spartak Moscow and Maribor.

Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich are the sides given the best chance - 97% - of reaching the last 16.

Scottish champions Celtic are given just a 4% chance of going through.

The likelihood of them progressing was 11% before they were drawn with Bayern Munich, PSG and Anderlecht.

Teams most likely to progress to last 16
Real Madrid (97%)Juventus (88%)
Barcelona (97%)Atletico Madrid (85%)
Bayern Munich (97%)Sevilla (84%)
Paris St-Germain (93%)Monaco (83%)

Lucky Liverpool?

Prior to the draw, Gracenote predicted Liverpool, who made it to the group stage with a 6-3 aggregate win over Hoffenheim, would not be among the 16 clubs to reach the knockout stage.

But, at 81%, they are now given the best chance of the six British clubs in the competition.

Tottenham Hotspur are predicted to miss out to Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in Group H.

Roma are given a 48% chance of progressing from Group C ahead of Chelsea or Atletico Madrid, while Shakhtar Donetsk (45%) could cause an upset in a group that includes Manchester City and Napoli.

At 73%, City are given the same chance of progressing as neighbours Manchester United, who face Benfica, Basel and CSKA Moscow.

In a BBC Sport poll, 34% of voters think that out of the British teams Manchester United will go furthest in the Champions League.

Champions League groups at a glance

Group A: Benfica, Manchester United, Basel, CSKA Moscow

Group B: Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain, Anderlecht, Celtic

Group C: Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Roma, Qarabag

Group D: Juventus, Barcelona, Olympiakos, Sporting

Group E: Spartak Moscow, Sevilla, Liverpool, Maribor

Group F: Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester City, Napoli, Feyenoord

Group G: Monaco, Porto, Besiktas, RB Leipzig

Group H: Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Tottenham, Apoel

Arsenal favourites for Europa League progress

Arsenal have been given a 96% chance of progressing from their group

Gracenote believes Arsenal (96%) are the side most likely to progress to the Europa League knockout stages, closely followed by Athletic Bilbao, Villarreal and Dynamo Kiev.

The Gunners face Bate, Koln and Crvena Zvezda in Group H.

Everton are given a 67% chance of progressing from a group including Lyon and Atalanta, but there is almost a 60% chance that a team dropping out of the Champions League will go on to win Europe's second-tier competition.

Three of the past eight Europa League winners were teams who started the season in the Champions League - including Chelsea in 2013.

"There is more chance of a team currently not in the Europa League winning it than one of the 48 starting the competition," said Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Gracenote Sports.

"Eight of the top 12 most likely Europa League winners this season start in the Champions League.

"Of those eight, Borussia Dortmund or Tottenham Hotspur are most favoured to pull this off as both have a high chance of finishing third in Champions League Group H and therefore switching to the Europa League."

How does it work?

Gracenote uses its Euro Club Index ranking of all European top-flight clubs and then simulates the group phase one million times to predict who will progress.

The sports data company correctly predicted 15 of the 16 clubs to progress to the Champions League knockout phase last season, and 27 of 32 from the Europa League.


Note: The vote in this page has been republished after an incorrect version appeared previously.


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