Great Britain can become the first nation to win more Olympic and Paralympic medals four years after hosting the Games, says UK Sport.
The body, which invests money in high-performance sports, says home nations success at this summer's Commonwealth Games in Glasgow shows Team GB can better the 185 medals they won at London 2012 in Rio in two years' time.
UK Sport chairman Rod Carr said: "We are on course to win more medals post-hosting, which no-one has done. We must not be complacent though."
Analysis undertaken by the government's sports agency suggests a record-breaking 34 sports could provide a British medal in Rio.
|Olympic hangover effect|
|China won 51 golds and 100 Olympic medals in total at Beijing 2008, but managed only 38 golds and 88 in total four years later.|
|Greece clinched six golds and 16 medals in total at Athens 2004, but failed to win a single gold and got only four medals in total at the 2008 Games.|
|Australia secured 16 golds and 58 medals in total at Sydney 2000. They won one more gold in Athens four years later, but nine fewer medals overall.|
England finished top of the medal table at the Commonwealth Games for the first time in 28 years, claiming 58 golds with 174 medals in total, while host nation Scotland finished fourth overall with a record haul of 19 golds and a best-ever tally of 53 medals.
Wales exceeded their target of 27, winning five golds in their 36-medal haul, and Northern Ireland finished with two golds, with their tally of 12 medals their highest since the Games were held in Edinburgh in 1986.
Minister for Sport Helen Grant said: "The performances of the home nations at the Commonwealth Games were absolutely fantastic.
"UK Sport has raised the bar high for Rio 2016, but I am encouraged that, backed by record public investment, British athletes are on track to deliver."