Great Britain can match their haul from London 2012 at this summer's Olympics in Rio and finish third again in the medal table, Steve Cram says.
The BBC athletics commentator, a former 1500m world champion, expects Team GB to win "seven or eight medals in track and field - with three or four golds".
He thinks Mo Farah will win two of them - repeating his golden double from London in the 5,000m and 10,000m.
"I am surprised people think we are going to win fewer medals," he said.
"I think we are going to do as well and win just about as many medals collectively as we did in London.
"I think we will be third in the medal table across all sports, which is an incredible thing to think when everyone thought it happened in 2012 because it was our home Games.
"But we have still got a system that is producing, and has managed to keep a lot of medallists in cycling, sailing, rowing, equestrian. We are as well prepared as we possibly can be going into Rio."
Team GB finished with 65 medals - 29 gold, 17 silver and 19 bronze - in London, surpassing their previous best Olympics tally of 47 in Beijing in 2008.
In addition to backing Farah, Cram believes long jumper Greg Rutherford and heptathlete Jessica Ennis-Hill could also retain their Olympic titles.
"Those guys are still on top of their events, or close to them," he told BBC Scotland's Sunday Sportsound programme.
"Then perhaps we might pick up one or two other medals from our relay teams."
But it is the prospect of seeing Farah, unbeaten in major championships since having to settle for silver in the 10,000m behind Ethiopia's Ibrahim Jeilan at the 2011 World Championships, that excites Cram most.
"I am intrigued this time," he added. "Kenya have got a couple of guys, particularly Geoffrey Kamworor [the 2015 world 10,000m silver medallist], who could challenge him.
"You keep thinking 'surely they are to going to come up with a different tactic, surely they are not going to sit and let him kick and let him win again', even if that's what we want him to do.
"It will be one of the great moments of the summer if he does it again."