Premiership final: Jeremy Guscott looks at where Exeter Chiefs v Saracens will be won and lost

Saracens and Exeter celebrate winning the Premiership final
Saracens and Exeter have won the past two Premiership titles but only one will be celebrating come full-time on Saturday
Aviva Premiership final
Venue: Twickenham Date: Saturday, 26 May Kick-off: 15:00 BST Coverage: Live on BBC Radio 5 live, BBC Radio London and BBC Radio Devon plus live text commentary and match updates on BBC Sport website and app

On latest form for both sides, Saturday's Premiership final between Exeter Chiefs and Saracens should be a more-than mouth-watering encounter.

Defending champions Exeter are in a third final in as many years, while Saracens will be desperate to reclaim the title they won against Chiefs in 2016.

Having watched Saracens' semi-final victory against Wasps on Saturday, at times they appeared to take their opponents apart at will.

Mark McCall's side really lowered their error count, upped their execution and ran really hard into areas where they could exploit a weakness.

The first 20 to 25 minutes was pretty much error-free. They looked like the side who were pretty much unbeatable when they won the domestic and European double in 2016.

Ominously, they have played themselves into the most magnificent form that creates an expectation they will repeat that semi-final performance against Wasps.

For Exeter, they know how to beat Saracens and know what it's like to win these finals having come through against Wasps in extra-time last year.

They also did it very well last season against Saracens in the semi-final. They've won the Premiership final and they know what's required to do so.

It all reads, looks and sounds like a massive game that - with the likes of Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, Sam Simmonds and Don Armand on show - should be very special.

Sarries defence to break down Chiefs' relentless possession game

Exeter thrive on possession. They feel they have an advantage in possession, that they wear teams down and really take hold of a game in a second half.

But Saracens will be prepared to give away that territory and possession. Exeter won't find that dominance coming so readily and easily, because Saracens are a fit team.

They have quality from one to 23. On the evidence of the past few games, their best players are pretty much back to their best at the business end of the season.

Maro Itoje has returned to his ball-carrying best after a disappointing Six Nations, Mako Vunipola has been omnipresent in everything that's been good about Saracens this season and hopefully Billy Vunipola will come through any injury concerns to take his place.

Maro Itoje wins a line-out for Saracens
British and Irish Lion Itoje won five line-outs in Saracens' semi-final win against Wasps

Saracens are almost at their best defending, waiting to pounce on the smallest of mistakes. But, equally, they're now more potent with the ball from anywhere on the field.

They've gone from being a side that was very defensive three or four seasons ago to a side that has opened up their offence.

Statistically, they're probably the most potent in the Premiership with the most clean breaks. A high percentage of those result in either tries or penalties.

Saracens are a clinical side. Exeter are a progressive side.

Exeter are working on their execution, sometimes it doesn't go quite right. But (director of rugby) Rob Baxter backs them to get it right.

Against a Saracens side who are so clinical, who could puncture your defence three or four times and score four tries in quick succession - with Farrell potentially kicking 20-odd points - that could be a tough train to stop.

Exeter will know their game has to be at their very best, while Saracens don't always have to be at their very best.

They know they are very difficult to beat with a strategy that sees them take their time when they enter an opponent's 22. They like to build and then they suck it in and pick-and-go, pick-and-go.

'Box Office' back rows come face-to-face

Billy Vunipola against Sam Simmonds, in the meeting of the two number eights, should really show us why Billy is the number one choice in an England shirt for that position.

Simmonds is a brilliant club player. As brief as he's been a regular for Chiefs, he's had a great impact. He's like an open-side flanker playing at number eight.

He's not stepped immediately into that international position. There's more power required there.

If you don't have that power at six and seven, which he has at Exeter, it allows him as a smaller, quicker man to be able to play at eight.

Sam Simmonds against Billy Vunipola in Premiership final head-to-head

With Don Armand and Dave Ewers alongside in the Chiefs' back row, they can do the donkey-work, some big carrying, allowing Simmonds to play on the edge.

Not that he can't work in congestion, he's better in space. In tight situations, he can use his quick feet.

It's one of those weird anomalies where he's so good at club level but, at the moment, average internationally.

But he's new and I critique him harshly because of what he's up against internationally.

When you look at the likes of Billy Vunipola, they step into the England team and it seems like another game, in another shirt, where they have the same presence and now with added experience - they're world class.

Simmonds has the same impact in a club game, so he's going to be an influential figure on the final for sure.

Can we learn anything from the last two play-off encounters?

Their previous meetings in the past two seasons' play-off games (victory for Saracens in the 2016 final, a win for Exeter in the 2017 semi-final) just gives this final more experience.

For me, the experience of the big time is with Saracens.

Exeter have arrived at the big time and, with victory on Saturday, they rubber-stamped that entry into the big time.

Saracens are already in the big time and, for four or five seasons, they've always been challenging for silverware. Exeter have done it on a domestic level for the past three seasons.

Exeter beat Saracens in the 2017 Premiership semi-final
A last-ditch Sam Simmonds try gave Exeter victory against Saracens in last season's Premiership semi-final

With the big match temperament and experience on Saracens' side, they will be favourites in many people's eyes.

It will be an explosive game because some of these guys are going on tour together the following week.

Exeter flanker Don Armand isn't going to South Africa and will be hoping to show Eddie Jones he's made a mistake. Simmonds will want to show that he can live against these big back rows.

Henry Slade and Jack Nowell for Exeter are match-winners in short spaces of time. Winger Olly Woodburn has had a tremendous season yet again with a number of tries.

The Chiefs' back line has to make it their day because the consistency of the likes of Farrell, Brad Barritt, Alex Lozowski, Chris Wyles, Sean Maitland and Alex Goode for Saracens is irresistible.

They're like the domestic equivalent of New Zealand on their day. As good as Exeter can play, right now their best is not as good as Saracens'.

That doesn't mean Exeter can't win. It's a question of taking the opportunities when they present themselves and when you've made them.

Prediction: Saracens to win by 7-10 points

Saracens scrum-half Ben Spencer celebrates his semi-final try against Wasps
Ben Spencer ran in the last of Saracens' six semi-final tries against Wasps

I see Saracens winning a very hard-fought game.

I think it will be explosive and exciting, particularly if the weather stays as it has been for the past week.

A dry, sunny day makes it potentially more exciting, makes you feel you can play your best rugby, in the best stadium, with huge support. It lifts you to improve on what you've done throughout the rest of the season.

It will be a wonderful, spectacular game, a wonderful advert for Premiership rugby and a great endorsement for the competition.

Saracens are at their potent best and I think, overall, they will keep coming. Exeter will also do the same, but I think that big match experience for Saracens will bring them out as winners.

Jeremy Guscott was speaking to BBC Sport's Adam Williams.

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