Monthly Outlook

High pressure should become more dominant for a while through the middle of next week, giving a couple of drier days for most areas. However, frontal systems will bring some heavy rain back before the end of the week, mainly in the northern and western United Kingdom.

This sort of pattern is probably going to continue through to the middle of October, with the northern and western UK being wetter than the south and east. Temperatures should mainly be above the October average. Later October has a lot of uncertainty, but it could become wetter more widely, and also somewhat cooler.

The weekend will be unsettled. Rain on Saturday is going to clear away, and not much of it will reach south-east England. A mixture of sunshine and blustery showers will follow on Sunday, although the southern UK could be cloudier with some steadier rain.

On Monday, another frontal system will bring a band of rain or scattered showers, some heavy and potentially thundery. Temperatures will stay above average but on Tuesday and Wednesday there will be some cooler north-westerly winds developing, which will mean a couple of chillier nights but temperatures shouldn't be any lower than average.

Tuesday will have a few showers scattered around, mainly in northern and western areas, with sunshine in between, but there will be a drier trend as a weak high pressure ridge builds, with any rainfall most likely to be confined to north and west Scotland and Northern Ireland by Wednesday.

The rest of the week will see Atlantic frontal systems trying to return, but most of the rain will be in the northern and western UK, with southern and eastern areas having longer dry spells. With winds backing round to the south-west or even south, the second half of the week should become warmer again.

The most likely set-up through to the middle of October is for high pressure to be positioned to the south and south-east of the UK, while low pressure systems track north-east and eastwards across the north-east Atlantic, mainly towards the northern UK.

Some active frontal systems will bring periodic rain and strong winds, largely to northern and western areas, with Scotland and Northern Ireland looking like being the wettest.

High pressure will exert more influence on the southern and eastern UK, and these areas will continue to see longer drier periods. They are unlikely to be devoid of rain, but rainfall amounts in the south and east should be near or below average.

This is the sort of weather pattern during which broadly south-westerly wind flows should predominate; so, except in any heavy rain, temperatures should mostly remain above the October average.

There is low confidence in the outlook beyond mid-October, with the longer-range models having disagreements on the eventual pattern.

It's most probable that similar conditions will continue for a while, with most of the rain from Atlantic systems ending up across the northern and western UK, while southern and eastern areas still see the longer drier periods, with rainfall amounts near or below seasonal.

It should stay warmer than usual, although temperatures across Scotland are more likely to be near average.

The last week of the month could see the pattern shift, with low pressure starting to dominate more of the country as high pressure slips farther away. The result would be wetter conditions more widely across the UK, and this would also bring a drop in temperatures closer to average for most areas. However, there is no sign yet of any notably cold weather.

We will look for the models to come into better alignment for the second half of October when the next update comes around.