Monthly Outlook

Last updated at 10:00 on Wednesday 14 November

Summary

Dry and settled but turning cooler

The end of this week will see the weather becoming drier and more settled, and it will remain relatively dry and calm next week, although it will turn cooler. There are still indications of more unsettled, breezier and milder conditions at the start of December

Wednesday 14 November—Sunday 18 November

A largely dry and settled end to the week

The first half of this week was very unsettled and showery, and some parts of the country saw some heavy and thundery downpours. The end of the week will be quite different as high pressure starts to spread across the country and the weather becomes much drier and calmer.

There will be some rain on Wednesday which looks to be a cloudy and wet day across the north and west of the UK. Some upland areas of western Scotland and northern England could see persistent and at times heavy rain. The south and east should remain largely dry and bright. Thursday will also see some rain in the northwest but drier weather elsewhere. Wednesday and Thursday will also be a very mild for the time of year.

Friday and the weekend will see high pressure taking control and dry weather for most areas. Temperatures will still be a little above normal although not quite as mild as Wednesday and Thursday.

However, as we sometimes see at this time of year, calm conditions can allow fairly widespread mist and fog to develop overnight, and this can be very slow to clear during the day. There is a chance that some patches of mist and fog could linger all day on Thursday and Friday. Fog should be less of a problem over the weekend though as winds freshen a little, but the nights will turn chillier.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 25 November

Often dry and calm but rather cool

High pressure is expected to be centred over Scandinavia and the North Sea for much of next week. It will be close enough to the UK to bring largely fine and dry weather at the start of the week. However, we will see easterly winds developing on the southern flank of the high pressure area, and at this time of year easterly winds generally mean cooler weather for the UK.

Temperatures are expected to be close to normal at the start of the week but to fall below average by the middle to end of the week - quite a contrast to the recent mild weather.

Although high pressure normally brings fine and dry weather, there will be a chance of showers developing in the North Sea being blown into eastern parts of the UK. The shower risk is likely to be minimal at first but by midweek, there will be a moderate risk of showers for eastern counties of England and Scotland. A few showers could creep a bit further west too.

It is likely to be too windy for widespread mist and fog but low cloud in the North Sea could bring some gloomy days to parts of England and Scotland. Sheltered western parts of the UK should have the best chance of staying dry and seeing some sunny spells too.

Monday 26 November—Sunday 9 December

Probably turning breezier and wetter but milder

The latest outlook indicates a possible change in weather pattern at the end month and into the start of December. The last few days of November are likely to see little change, with high pressure still expected to be close to the north or northwest of Europe, but as we head into December there are signs that the area of high pressure will shift southwards and eastwards across Europe. This would allow Atlantic weather systems to have more of an influence, bringing more unsettled conditions.
Winds will start to change direction from easterlies to southwesterlies, meaning temperatures could return to nearer normal, perhaps even slightly above what you'd expect for the time of year.

The transition from settled to unsettled weather looks to be a bit messy though, and there is some uncertainty over how quickly it will happen. In fact, there is an alternative forecast which has high pressure remaining more of a feature across northern and western Europe. This would suggest that it would remain cool and relatively dry and calm across the UK. There seems to be a fairly low chance of this though, with it much more likely that we'll see a return to a more normal westerly or south-westerly pattern.

Next Update

Can we expect more unsettled conditions as we move towards the middle of December?