Becoming less unsettled
The recent unsettled weather looks more likely to continue next week than in our last update, but there are indications of spell of relatively dry weather around the end of the month. September should start reasonably dry but will become more unsettled, although we do not expect it to be anything like as wet as it has been so far in August.
Changeable with spells of wet and windy weather
After a fairly windy and wet weekend for some areas of the country, next week is likely to start on an unsettled note as low pressure remains nearby. Monday will be breezy with showers and perhaps some longer spells of rain, although it doesn't look as wet or as windy as recent days.
A weak ridge of high pressure building across the UK means that Tuesday will be drier and calmer with widespread sunny periods and just a few scattered showers. Wednesday will start dry for many areas, but an Atlantic low will push cloud and rain across many areas of the country by the end of the day, with winds also likely to pick up across the north of the UK. Thursday also looks unsettled and showery as the low pressure system remains nearby.
In our last update it looked likely that high pressure would build across the UK bringing drier, warmer and calmer weather to most areas in time for the weekend. Whilst that pattern still looks possible, it now seems more likely that we will see low pressure continuing to be the main influence on our weather, and the unsettled conditions persisting into the weekend. It is worth noting that there is greater than normal uncertainty in the forecast for the end of next week, so we may yet see a drier and sunnier weekend.
Probably drier and warmer, but a chance of rain
The last few days of August and first day of September should feature some relatively fine and dry weather as high pressure has more of an influence on the weather across north-west Europe. However, there will be the chance that the low pressure which featured in the previous week lingers into this period, or that we see low pressure systems moving southeastwards from Iceland across the UK as they head into Central Europe.
The most likely picture is for the UK to be drier and calmer than normal, with a decent amount of sunshine and with temperatures a little above normal in most areas. If low pressure remains nearby or pushes in from the NW, then we could see it remaining wetter and windier, and temperatures would be near or perhaps a little below normal for the time of year in many areas.
There is continuing uncertainty over the forecast at this range, so confidence is generally low compared to normal for this period.
Little more unsettled but some fine weather likely
The ridge of high pressure we expect to be across North West Europe at the end of August should drift eastwards towards Scandinavia and North East Europe during the first couple of weeks of September. That means that the relatively calm, dry and warm weather is likely to give way to something more changeable, with rainfall probably returning to near normal in most areas. It should still be a little warmer and a little less windy than normal though.
Compared to the usual patterns, it looks as though the south and west of the UK is more likely to see unsettled weather than the north and east, mainly due to the proximity of high pressure over Scandinavia. However, for the UK as a whole it conditions shouldn't be too far from 'average'.
Whilst confidence was below normal for the forecast for the end of August, it actually increases the further we head into September. This is due to a number of factors, but one of the main things we see is better agreement between the various forecasting techniques used to predict the weather at this range.
We'll take another look at the weather for the end of this month and start of next month to see if the forecast for the end of the summer looks any more certain.